Sunrise

As many of you will know…I’ve long thought that Kevin Lowe was responsible for all that has befallen the Oilers over the past decade and, let’s be honest, he WAS in charge all those years.

The hiring of Peter Chiarelli and, most importantly, his insistence on also being the team’s GM, finally brings the Lowe/MacT cabal that has devastated the team to a merciful end.

I’m still a little worried that both of the villains will still be employed by the team in some capacity but they should be far enough away from the levers of power that they have very little influence on the team’s future.

Some observers have expressed concern that Chiarelli was hired too quickly without an exhaustive search but I believe the Oilers had to act quickly or he would have been hired elsewhere very quickly…likely in Ottawa.

So, where do the Oilers go from here?

With the Ship of Fools now departing the harbour and an accomplished POHO/GM in charge, I expect Chiarelli will set out to balance the team.

He specifically said he said at his introductory news conference that he would not be afraid to trade any of the young starts if he thought he could improve the team and, from my point of view, that was the most welcome thing he said.

The team must address goaltending and their woeful defense and, while the former should be relatively easy to solve through free agency or a minor trade of assets, I don’t believe there is any other currency than one of Hall or Eberle to accomplish the latter.

The Oilers have to find TWO top pairing D and they have to be in the age range of the young cluster.

There’s a bunch of talk over at Lowetide today that the Oilers should look at bringing in someone like Chara but, c’mon, he’s 38 years old and is breaking down quickly.

There is also some hope that the Oilers will jump on cap strapped teams to land a first pairing D but, other than Hall, Eberle or Pittsburgh’s 1st round pick, the Oilers don’t have any assets that would be of interest to those teams unless they want to give up Nurse or Klefbom which, I’m my opinion, is likely not wise.

Be interesting to se if Chiarelli and I are on the same wavelength.

Dum Luck

The Edmonton Oilers are likely a much better hockey team today than they were yesterday but they are also a team that is being rewarded, handsomely, for a decade of incompetence.

It is true that the NHL draft lottery exists to give a leg up to teams that have fallen on hard times but the Oilers will now have FOUR 1st overall picks in their lineup and unless their management can deliver a winner in short order, they will deserve every bit of scorn from hockey fans all over the world will heap on them.

With Connor McDavid in the fold, Kevin Lowe and Co. have likely bought themselves more time with fans and, most importantly, owner Daryl Katz but unless they can surround all that young talent with the right veterans (something they have shown little aptitude for), the stakes will be very high.

I would say they have the length of Connor McDavid’s entry level contract to win a Stanley Cup and, if they haven’t, it will be time to blow it all up again.

There are a few reasons for that.

The most important of those is that the Oilers will be in a very tenuous cap position with all of Hall, Eberle, Hopkins and, perhaps, Yakupov earning big dollars and, one would imagine if McDavid lives up to his draft billing, a second contract that far eclipses the $6 million now being paid to Hall, Eberle and Hopkins.

When you consider they have to acquire (and pay) TWO top pairing defensemen and a legitimate starting goaltender, they are likely to have very little remaining cap space to fill out a team with good complimentary players.

Of course, they will likely rely on some of their prospect depth to fill out the bottom of the order but, bear in mind, in 3 years time some of the players will also be needing second (more expensive) contracts as well.

Prudent management I think should already be looking 3-4 years down the road and realize that they need to make some moves now to prevent that situation from developing.

If we assume that two top pairing D are likely going to cost north of $5 million each, you could see a situation in Connor McDavid’s 4th season where the Oilers are paying him $8M, Hall, Hopkins and Eberle $6M each and Yakupov perhaps $5M.

That would be a minimum of $41M to pay 7 players and, depending on where the cap is at, could make it exceedingly difficult to round out a winning roster.

The Oilers can, of course, move any one of those highly paid pieces at any time but, considering they desperately need to fill out they D corp and get solid goaltending, it make a whole lot of sense to start that process right away and get on with trying to win.

Tomorrow just arrived.

Snipers & Their Shooting Percentages

 

It’s rather amazing….although not surprising….that Oiler fans, despite all the evidence to the contrary, cannot allow themselves to entertain the notion that the young players on other teams are clearly superior is some ways to the Hall, Hopkins, Eberle, Yakupov group that is little more than pedestrian considering their draft pedigrees.

Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet noted in his weekly “30 Thoughts” segment today:

– Players who’ve scored 30 goals at age 20 in the 21st century: Alexander Ovechkin, Steven Stamkos, Ilya Kovalchuk, Jonathan Toews, Evgeni Malkin, Anze Kopitar, Patrice Bergeron, Marian Gaborik, Evander Kane… and Sean Monahan. 

Last night, over at Lowetide’s blog, I happened to note Monohan’s accomplishment and the reaction was immediate, predictable and hilarious in its logical vapidity.

The jist of the argument seems to be that, since Monahan’s shooting percentage is above league average, it MUST regress to the mean.

That, of course, is absolute nonsense, and, in fact, the Lowetidians said exactly the same thing last season when Monahan’s shooting percentage was 15.7%.

Well, here we are a season and 78 games later and Monahan’s shooting percentage is 16.4%

NHL average shooting percentage for forwards hovers around 11% although it has been declining since peaking at over 15% in the “scoring glory” days of the mid 80’s.

Quant Hockey has some great breakdowns for those interested, here.

Now, let’s bear in mind that, to reach an average, some players will be below average and some will  be above average…it does not mean that ALL players are average…they aren’t.

The question then becomes…are there players in the contemporary NHL who have career shooting percentages in the 14% – 16% range which seems like it might be Monahan’s established level of ability.

The answer is….YES.

In the discussion over at Lowetide last night, I cited Alex Tanguay as one example of a player who has maintained a shooting percentage well above league average for many years…but he is far from the only one. (source)

Alex Tanguay – 18.97

Steven Stamkos – 17.17

Brendan Morrow – 15.97

Jonathan Toews – 14.92

Mike Ribiero – 14.93

Milan Lucic – 14.71

Curtis Glencross – 14.66

Thomas Vanek – 14.56

Dany Heatley – 14.50

Sidney Crosby – 14.45

Troy Brouwer – 14.43

Pavel Datsyuk – 14.43

Jordan Eberle – 14.00

The last name on that list is interesting because Oiler fans think of Jordan Eberle as a pure sniper…something I can agree with but I wonder why Oiler fans aren’t calling for him to “regress” to the mean.

Perhaps it’s because he’s a more talented goal scorer than average just as it is entirely possible that Monahan is actually a better sniper than Eberle as all the available evidence suggests he is.

In his second season, Eberle had an 18.9% shooting percentage and there were more than a few who correctly predicted that was not sustainable since, if it was, he would have been among the best snipers in modern history but, 3 seasons later, Eberle is still well above average and I can’t think of any reason why that will change.

In fact, Eberle apparently had wrist issues early in the season which likely means his current season percentage would be higher than it is currently.

Having said that, there is always a chance that Monahan’s percentage will dip in future seasons but to insist it must regress to the mean is a logical fallacy of immense proportions.

And, finally, here’s something else to consider….Monahan got off to a very slow start to the season…scoring only 2 goals on 27 shots in his first 10 games for a shooting percentage of only 7%.

He’s been lights out ever since and I would wager his shooting percentage will remain well above average in the future.

Not a Clue

 

John MacKinnon of the Edmonton Journal has a post up which contains the collected wit and wisdom of the worst GM in the NHL.

Craig MacTavish reveals explicitly how deluded he is about his roster and its abilities.

“I really feel we’ve got a foundation of NHL players, a top two defence pair (Justin Schultz and Oscar Klefbom) that I”m happy with,” MacTavish said.

“We’ve got a real good emerging first line (Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Jordan Eberle and Taylor Hall) that is becoming more and more impactful in the games, a much better level than they were at last year.”

The man is smoking the drapes.

In what world are Schultz and Klefbom a top pair D?

The answer is…NONE.

Justin Schultz is a huge liability on defence and does not produce enough offence to justify his existence.

He is currently ranked 46th in the league in points accrued by a defenseman….that’s good enough to tie for third among Flames defensemen.

That “real good emerging first line” is nothing more than wishful thinking.

There are 40 NHL centres who have scored more points than Ryan Nugent-Hopkins….FOURTY.

There are 16 NHL right wingers that have scored more points than Jordan Eberle.

And there are 25 left wingers that have scored more points than Taylor Hall.

If none of your first line players are top 10 in scoring…you’re pretty much hooped….ask the Vancouver Canucks whose top line is much more productive than the Oilers but still not good enough to win.

And for those hoping there will be a Chairman Mao “Great Leap Forward” next season…not a fucking chance:

“There’s not going to be 10 new bodies coming in that dressing room. There may be one, two or three new bodies and there are some areas of our game we have to address and get better and we’re going to do that.”

 

Good Grief.

Snap Shots

 

1) Tyler Seguin in beast mode in Edmonton with 2G 1A. Now on pace for 64 goals and 107 points. Oh, and he had NINE shots on goal.

2) Kyle Wellwood Sam Gagner  Jakub Voracek is one point ahead of Seguin for the NHL scoring lead with 43 points in 33 GP. Don’t mention the war… or Logan Couture.

3) Jarome Iginla is a bust in Colorado…right? Did you know Iginla, with a $5.3 million dollar cap hit, has 21 points, one more than Jordan Eberle who has a $6 million cap hit.

4) I see the venerable Lowetide has come around to thinking the way a few of us have for years:

Lowetide:
Oilers have to do something about their goalie. Question: Do they make that move now? At this rate they can keep this team down in the standings and stay in the 29-30 slots. I mean, we’re basically halfway through the season.

I’d agree to that but they have to fire management.

What took you so long buddy?

5) The Edmonton Oilers are on pace for a -101 goal differential.

6) It looks like the race for the basement is now down to 3 teams. The Buffalo Sabres just picked up another point in OT and now have 29 while Carolina, Arizona and Edmonton are all within 5 points of one another. If Arizona conducts a fire sale in the new year, as expected, I’d wager they finish 30th and the NHL will “manage” the lottery so that the Oilers pick 3rd.

7)  The Calgary Flames have dropped (no surprise) to 3 points out out of  a wildcard spot. But don’t count them out just yet. Brian Burke is sitting on $22 million free cap space ($61 million! at the trade deadline) to make deals with. Would Antoine Vermette, Keith Yandle and another scorer propel the Flames into the playoffs? Maybe. Keep an eye on the Flames…they have the cap space and assets to make major moves.

8) The Minnesota Wild continue to out shoot opponents by a wide margin (an average of almost 6 shots/game) but are still muddling along (4-3-3 in their last 10GP). One wonders why they don’t win more often.

9) What’s up with the Winnipeg Jets? Despite losing FOUR of their top 6 D, they remain competitive and are currently in a playoff spot. Who says coaching doesn’t matter.

10)  The Chicago Blackhawks lead the NHL with a +35 goal differential.The Anaheim Ducks, conversely, lead the NHL with 49 points despite a goal differential of only +5. Can you spell clutch?