The All Star break provides us with the unofficial half waypoint of the season although some teams have already played 50 or more games.
Common sense and Sports Club Stats tell us that some teams have already secured a playoff berth.
Dallas – 99.8%
Chicago – 99.8%
Los Angeles – 99.6%
San Jose – 94.2%
St. Louis – 89.5%
That leaves just 3 open spots and, realistically, only 6 teams with any chance of grabbing a spot.
Minnesota – 75.9%
Colorado – 61.4%
Nashville – 49.4%
Anaheim – 48.9%
Arizona – 39.1%
Vancouver – 24.7%
The 3 Canadian Prairie teams are D.O.A. and will be dead men skating for the next 2 months barring an act of God.
Calgary – 9%
Winnipeg – 5.8%
Edmonton – 0.9%
So, what’s likely to happen here?
One way we can asses things is to look at home/road, interdivisional schedules and recent momentum.
First, let’s take a look at the difficulty of schedule facing WC teams:
What stands out here is that the Coyotes, Predators and Wild face tougher schedules than some of the other hopefuls, while the Avalanche and Canucks have relatively easy schedules down the stretch.
Minnesota, on the surface, would appear to have the best odds here but they have been very poor of late (2-6-2) and have an equal number of home and road games remaining.
The Wild have been fine defensively but can’t put the puck in the ocean.
This team has been the best defensive team in the NHL since early December, yet it finds itself in this position because again it cannot score easily. There are so many passengers on this team right now, it’s really unbelievable.
The amount of what coach Mike Yeo called, “major, major slumps,” has to be remedied.
We’re talking Mikael Granlund, Jason Pominville, Nino Niederreiter, Thomas Vanek, Mikko Koivu, Jason Zucker, Matt Dumba. All these guys are relied upon to score and none of them are.
You can bet GM Chuck Fletcher is working the phones to add some scoring to his lineup and he does have an excess of defensemen to dangle (Jonas Brodin anyone?) but his team has precious little time to reverse course, especially with a tough remaining schedule.
If momentum (and confidence) count for anything, and I think they do, Colorado at (6-4-0) is trending up.
They have played 2 more road games than home although their home record (12-10-3) is nothing to write “home” about.
Clouding things in Denver is a civil suit filed against goaltender Semyon Varlamov with a trial currently underway.
After his then-girlfriend accused him of beating her, Avalanche goaltender Semyon Varlamov told the team’s managers that she hit him, and he moved her aside and locked himself in a bedroom, Avs head coach Patrick Roy testified Thursday.
The story Varlamov told Roy and other team managers differed from the account of Evgeniya Vavrinyuk.
Vavrinyuk, whose civil suit against Varlamov is being heard in Denver District Court, has testified that Varlamov beat her.
Who knows how that might affect the team but it surely has to be some kind of distraction.
The Nashville Predators, much like the Wild, lack the high end scoring prowess to keep up with the big boys in the Central Division.
Despite adding a #1C in Ryan Johansen, the Preds still need a high scoring winger.
They likely won’t move another D to get one so I’m not sure where they go from here.
Had Pekka Rinne kept up his all world goaltending performances of the past few seasons, they might be competitive but Rinne has been pedestrian (.906) and, at 32 may be fading.
The Predators have a tough schedule going home but have only played 23 games at home where they are very good (13-7-3) and and 27 on the road.
To me, the team to watch is the Anaheim Ducks.
They’ve been a top 3 team in possession stats all season and their scoring is coming around.
This is my choice to grab a spot in the Pacific Division which I, and many others, thought would win the division crown.
The Arizona Coyotes has been living large all season but the clock is about to strike midnight for Cinderella.
The Dogs are the second worst team in the league in terms of possession but have a very difficult schedule down the stretch.
Can’t say I’m disappointed in their performance but with the plethora of talent coming in next season they WILL be a much improved team next season.
The real underdog here is the Vancouver Canucks.
They’ve endured a host of injuries but will be getting Henrik Sedin, Brandon Sutter and Dan Hamhuis back after the all star break.
While those returnees may not be earth shattering, it’s worth noting that Vancouver has had a brutal schedule thus far with multiple long road trips and a huge imbalance in home/road games.
Vancouver has only played 22 games at home and 28 on the road so, if they can create some momentum at home, they have a chance to stay in the race.
The Canucks easily have the softest schedule in the back half so, if they can take advantage, they should have good shot at a wildcard spot.