Sunrise

sunrise

As many of you will know…I’ve long thought that Kevin Lowe was responsible for all that has befallen the Oilers over the past decade and, let’s be honest, he WAS in charge all those years.

The hiring of Peter Chiarelli and, most importantly, his insistence on also being the team’s GM, finally brings the Lowe/MacT cabal that has devastated the team to a merciful end.

I’m still a little worried that both of the villains will still be employed by the team in some capacity but they should be far enough away from the levers of power that they have very little influence on the team’s future.

Some observers have expressed concern that Chiarelli was hired too quickly without an exhaustive search but I believe the Oilers had to act quickly or he would have been hired elsewhere very quickly…likely in Ottawa.

So, where do the Oilers go from here?

With the Ship of Fools now departing the harbour and an accomplished POHO/GM in charge, I expect Chiarelli will set out to balance the team.

He specifically said he said at his introductory news conference that he would not be afraid to trade any of the young starts if he thought he could improve the team and, from my point of view, that was the most welcome thing he said.

The team must address goaltending and their woeful defense and, while the former should be relatively easy to solve through free agency or a minor trade of assets, I don’t believe there is any other currency than one of Hall or Eberle to accomplish the latter.

The Oilers have to find TWO top pairing D and they have to be in the age range of the young cluster.

There’s a bunch of talk over at Lowetide today that the Oilers should look at bringing in someone like Chara but, c’mon, he’s 38 years old and is breaking down quickly.

There is also some hope that the Oilers will jump on cap strapped teams to land a first pairing D but, other than Hall, Eberle or Pittsburgh’s 1st round pick, the Oilers don’t have any assets that would be of interest to those teams unless they want to give up Nurse or Klefbom which, I’m my opinion, is likely not wise.

Be interesting to se if Chiarelli and I are on the same wavelength.

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24 thoughts on “Sunrise

  1. Now that Lowe/MacT are not making hockey decisions are you going to stop posting obvious drivel like saying Gaudreau is a better hockey player than Hall?

    I was convinced it was you taking your Lowe hate out on Oiler fans by trolling them because you are much too smart to actually believe that and other things you have posted.

    Liked by 1 person

    1. Hall appears to be your hill to die on.

      While I think he is very good, I also think he is a very flawed player with injury and attitude issues.

      In light of our “conversation” last night, I took a look at players who have accomplished what you were trumpeting as Hall’s achievement at the ages of 21 and 22.

      I limited my search to only those players who accomplished a PPG season who were younger than Hall.

      I stopped counting at 40.

      You have to remember that Hall walked into a situation where he got gravy minutes and oodles of PP time while other 1st round picks either arrive later or are eased into the lineup…like Seguin or, dare I say it, Tarasenko.

      If you offered me Hall straight up for either player, I would tell you to piss off and that attitude might well extend to Ryan Johansen as well….and that’s just the players from Hall’s draft year.

      As for Gaudreau, he just completed a rookie season that blows away Hall’s rookie season which, as always, was limited by injury.

      Gaudreau finished with 24 goals and 64 points…something Hall has eclipsed only ONCE in his career.

      Considering that Hall remains a turnover machine and a defensive liability 5 years into his career while Gaudreau isn’t either of those things, I’d take Gaudreau all day long.

      The defense rests.

      Like

      1. Defense rests eh?

        You found over 40 eh?

        My question was: “How many players were 6th in pts/gm when they were 21 and 8th when they were 22?”

        Here’s the link to the question: http://lowetide.ca/2015/04/24/chiarelli-in-charge/comment-page-1/#comment-406776

        I looked back as far as the 2004 lockout and until now and found:

        I included players younger than 21/22 for obvious reasons

        14-15 None – All 8 were over 22

        Hall (6th)(22) 13-14
        Seguin (8th)(22) 12-14

        Hall (7th)(21) 12-13
        Everyone says Hall was 8th this year, but Lupul only played 16 games, so he was really 7th

        Stamkos (5th)(22) 11-12

        Stamkos (7th)(21) 10-11

        Crosby (4th)(22) 09-10
        Stamkos (6th) (20) 09-10

        Malkin (2nd)(22) 08-09
        Crosby (5th)(21) 08-09

        Crosby (3rd)(20) 07-08
        Maklin (4th)(21) 07-08

        Crosby (1st)(19) 06-07

        Spezza (4th)(22) 05-06
        Kovalchuk (7th)(22) 05-06

        So Hall did something that since the last lock out only, Kovalchuk, Spezza, Crosby, Malkin, Stamkos, and Seguin have achieved and you think Gaudreau is superior.

        Well that’s just great Andrew!

        Good for you!

        Defense rests indeed.

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        1. I was looking at players who had exceeded a PPG in an 18-29-20-21 year old seasons and rather than limit it to a 10 year period I went back to 20 years to get a bigger sample size:

          I’m not going to go through the whole list again but here’s a smattering.

          Mario Lemieux

          Joe Sakic

          Jeremy Roenick

          Luc Robitaiile

          Pavel Bure

          Steve Yzerman

          Pierre Turgeon

          Mike Modano

          Jaromir Jagr

          Owen Nolan

          Eric Lindros

          Peter Forsberg

          Paul Kariya

          Mats Sundin

          Dany Heatley

          Ilya Kovalchuk

          Alex Ovechkin

          Which brings us to the period you covered.

          Now I’m not sure if you believe that where a player ranks in the scoring race is important but so much of that depends on the success of others it diminishes the metric.

          Some of the players above were playing a higher goal scoring era and some were playing in the dead puck era while Hall’s numbers are skewed more to the former than the latter although that is changing as we’ve seen in this season’s scoring totals.

          Also, many, although not all, of those players had sustain in their numbers over their careers and others didn’t due to injury etc…just as we are seeing with Hall.

          I know you want to believe Hall is very special player but, with 5 seasons of results to work with, we’re now seeing a flawed player who remains a defensive liability and a turnover machine.

          I think you’ll see that reflected in how Hall is deployed at the upcoming World Championships where the coaching staff will have lots of options.

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          1. I didn’t say it wasn’t true…it’s just that it doesn’t mean all that much since many others have reached that level and most sustained it while Hall’s production has dropped. Hall is a good offensive player when he’s healthy but he’s not nearly as special as you think he is.

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          2. No, many have not achieved top 8 in pts/gm as a 21 and 22 year old.

            That is fact.

            If you want to throw him away after one injury plagued season where his production was identical as his previous year up to his injury that is your choice.

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          3. Many have achieved it. And no one is suggesting he be thrown away. He’s the Oilers most valuable trade asset unless you want to move Nuge or MCDavid which would be dumb. But you have to give to get and Chiarelli already knows it.

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          4. Many have achieved it.

            Saying this over and over doesn’t make it true.

            I showed that 7 players did it in the last 10 years.

            That is not lots.

            That is very little.

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          5. You know, Darcy, if you want to keep clinging to a very narrow window that makes Hall seem like a super hero, fill yer boots but I would suggest you take a look at the numbers posted by players in the first 5 years of their careers and see how Hall stacks up.

            It won’t be pretty.

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          6. Ok.

            Here are the top 20 player since the last lockout between the ages of 18-23 (Hall career ages) ranked by points per game.

            I even included players with as little as 1 year just to give him extra competition.

            Players that start their careers in their 20’s have a head start on this as they are not playing the best in the world while they are teenagers.

            Name – # of seasons – pts/gm

            Sidney Crosby 5 1.36
            Jason Spezza 2 1.31
            Alex Ovechkin 4 1.3
            Evgeni Malkin 4 1.23
            Ilya Kovalchuk 2 1.09
            Steven Stamkos 5 1.03
            Eric Staal 3 1.02
            Nicklas Backstrom 4 1
            Paul Stastny 3 0.96
            Patrick Kane 5 0.92
            Ryan Getzlaf 4 0.91
            Anze Kopitar 5 0.91
            Ales Hemsky 2 0.9
            John Tavares 5 0.9
            Jonathan Toews 5 0.9
            Taylor Hall 5 0.88
            Rick Nash 3 0.86
            Alexander Semin 2 0.82
            Patrice Bergeron 4 0.81
            Bobby Ryan 4 0.81
            Thomas Vanek 2 0.81
            Jordan Eberle 4 0.8
            Tyler Seguin 5 0.8
            Matt Duchene 5 0.78
            Mike Richards 4 0.76

            Oh, hey look! He ranks 16th out of all of em!

            Yeah, that’s really shitty company he’s keeping.

            Not pretty at all eh?

            Seriously, you’re looking the fool here.

            Like

          7. I would suggest you take a look at the numbers posted by players in the first 5 years of their careers and see how Hall stacks up.

            Since the 04/05 lock out.

            Total points by age 23.

            Age is very, very relevant because a player’s clock ticks by age, not games played.

            Notice that a lot of these players have 5 seasons in by age 23.

            Name – seasons – total points
            Sidney Crosby 5 506
            Alex Ovechkin 4 420
            Steven Stamkos 5 386
            Evgeni Malkin 4 381
            Patrick Kane 5 369
            Anze Kopitar 5 358
            Jonathan Toews 5 324
            Nicklas Backstrom 4 323
            John Tavares 5 315
            Tyler Seguin 5 282
            Ryan Getzlaf 4 270
            Matt Duchene 5 263
            Taylor Hall 5 263
            Eric Staal 3 252
            Phil Kessel 5 245
            Erik Karlsson 5 237
            Jakub Voracek 5 229
            Jordan Eberle 4 221
            Mike Richards 4 221
            Sam Gagner 5 220
            Nathan Horton 4 216
            Jeff Skinner 5 216
            Milan Lucic 5 212
            Wojtek Wolski 5 211
            Dion Phaneuf 4 206

            Hey look!

            Hall comes in at 13th in the entire league.

            You’re right, its not pretty.

            Not pretty for your argument.

            Like

  2. Grossly overvaluing Oiler players. It’s a religion bordering on a cult. From the perspective of a person who has played Sr. A hockey and coached Jr, I know that what I see of Hall’s on ice behavior is not impressive. He has developed the reputation of being an immature prima donna. Between that, his inability to mentally process the game and his endless injury history, Oiler fanboys would be shocked at how low his actual trade value is, despite his obvious physical talent. Seguin was moved out of Boston because of attitude, the same could easily happen here.

    McDavid is the first franchise altering player they have had since Pronger and he is the only one that I see as not being on the table for improving the key areas of the team. If either Hall or Eberle is traded as part of a package for a stud defenceman, it will have the added advantage of showing the other members of the lollygagger’s club that it is time to grow up and act like actual hockey players. Chiarelli’s statement that the team had to play harder was music to my ears. He is someone who is not going to fall in love with “the young core.”

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  3. Of course it has to come down to points per game for Hall from the Oiler cultists. If you actually considered durability it would not be a pretty picture. Only one season with more than 65 games played. He’s a good player, but come on.

    Although when looking back at the endless passionate defenses of Gagner, Hemsky etc it is not surprising.

    Like

    1. Of course it has to come down to points per game for Hall from the Oiler cultists. If you actually considered durability it would not be a pretty picture. Only one season with more than 65 games played. He’s a good player, but come on.

      I love that you posted that before you read that he’s 13th in total points for all seasons up to age 23.

      He actually rates better in total points!

      Hahaha!

      Sounds like you’re the cultist.

      Grasp at any straw to deride Hall.

      Also,

      Since when did points per game become “a straw” it seperates the wheat and the chaff nicely and doesn’t penalize players (like the much hallowed Jeff Skinner) for missing some time.

      Like

      1. Now, we’re getting somewhere. Your numbers show a very good player who came out of the blocks hard but, due to injury, has faded.

        What your numbers don’t account for is that Hall received 1st line minutes and PP time right from day one while others, who were drafted by better teams or brought along more slowly, would actually show much better if they had received the Hall treatment.

        Seguin, Stamkos, Voracek and Kessel would have significantly higher numbers had they received the ice time that Hall did early on. But they didn’t.

        And speaking of Kessel, I’ve thought for quite some time that he is likely the closest comparable to Hall in the league although Kessel has been more durable.

        Both are tremendous skaters who create chances off the rush but are an adventure in their own end.

        Of course, Hall has yet to score 30 goals in a season while Kessel had accomplished that feat 3 times in his first 5 seasons so maybe I’m giving Hall too much credit here.

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        1. I’m glad you pointed out Hall was given 1st line time from the time he started as this is important.

          Ideal development has your kids on sheltered lines.

          The current gold standard is Tampa giving Palat-Johnson-Kucherov the softest minutes they can find for them while Stamkos-Killhorn-Callahan take on the opposing team’s best defensive forward and best defensive pair.

          The result is that your sheltered line get PP2 minutes (close to PP1), but don’t have to face the best the NHL have to offer.

          Hall never got that kind of sheltering as he was the best player on the team the moment he stepped on the ice as an 18 year old.

          He got to face the best in the NHL from the start with your favorite center Horcoff in the first year, a skinny 18 year old kid in RNH in his 2nd year, your 2nd favorite center in Sam Gagner in his 3rd year (RNH out for most of it with a shoulder injury) and then still-unable to shave every day RNH in year 4 and then a split of RNH, Lander and Roy in year 5.

          All these non-1st line C’s (except RNH in his 5th year) and Hall facing the best players in the best league in the world and he still put up fantastic numbers.

          Its incredible really that he has been able to overcome less than stellar help facing the best of the best and put up the numbers that he has.

          Absolutely incredible.

          Like

          1. Wait!!

            So he didn’t get 1st line time?

            I thought you said he did?

            So he is more awesome than you thought!

            For the record his rookie year C’s were: (954 min 5v5)

            Horcoff 327min
            Gagner 265min
            Cogliano 246
            Brule 63min

            Source: http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/showplayer.php?pid=1341&withagainst=true&season=2010-11&sit=5v5

            2nd year: (874 min 5v5)

            RNH 381min
            Gagner 320min
            Horcoff 132min

            Source: http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/showplayer.php?pid=1341&withagainst=true&season=2011-12&sit=5v5

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          2. In his rookie season, Hall played 18:12/game just 19 seconds less than Horcoff.

            In his rookie season, Tyler Seguin played 12:12/game.

            In his second season, Hall played 18:13/game

            In his second season, Seguin played 16:56/game

            In his third season, Hall played 18:13/game

            In his third season Seguin played 17:00/game

            In his fourth season Hall played 20:00/game

            In his fourth season Seguin played 19:20/game.

            Once the ice time was balanced and Seguin was playing his natural position, Seguin scored 37 Goals and 84 points.

            As I’m sure you are aware, Hall has NEVER scored 30 goals and has a career high of 80 points.

            I could go through a number of other players (like say Stamkos) to show you how Hall had a head start and then started to fall behind but I suspect you wouldn’t listen to reason in any case.

            Hall is a good to great player but he is where near the savant you think he is and considering his injury issues and attitude problems, he has much less value than you think he does.

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          3. Yay! I finally got you to admit Hall is a great player.

            He is.

            Stamkos is certainly better and Seguin is trending better as well for sure.

            Love both those players and am on record at Lowetide’s of saying they should take Seguin (mostly due to loving big RH C)

            This was fun.

            Thanks for engaging Andrew.

            Like

      2. who’s deriding him? you don’t see a durability concern? and where did I mention a straw that you quoted? Am I wrong in saying he has only surpassed 65 games once? why do you take this so personally?

        Like

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