Spitballin”

 

With the trade deadline less than 48 hours away, it’s always fun to speculate who is going where and what the return might be.

Of course, none of us has the inside poop on what General Mangers are actually thinking but we can make some guesses on what we think teams need and which ones are likely to be buyers.

One team that has been flying quietly under the radar is the Calgary Flames. 

TSN/ESPN pundit Pierre Lebrun has a post up today that looks author the Flames are approaching the deadline:

The reality is that the Calgary Flames are playing with house money being in playoff contention this late in the season, and even if their passionate fans might have forgotten their pedestrian preseason expectations, team management hasn’t. Which is why GM Brad Treveling isn’t about to trade a first-round pick in exchange for rental help. Heck, he’s going to guard his second-round pick pretty closely too, unless it’s a trade that really, really makes sense. And he will protect his Grade A prospects, too. But he does want to make a deal before Monday’s deadline that’s reasonable for now and beyond because he wants to reward the NHL’s hardest-working, blue-collar outfit for their surprising season.

Lebrun also identifies Calgary as being in the market for a defenseman in the wake of the injury to Mark Giordano and with his team currently 1 point out of a playoff sport, I think he’ll pull the trigger and may have the Oilers’ Jeff Petry in his sights.

The question then becomes what might the Flames dangle to get themselves another defenseman. Well, they are absolutely loaded at centre with Sean Monahan, Matt Stajan, Micahel Backlund, Joe Colbourne, Lance Bouma, Josh Jooris, Markus Granlund, Max Reinhart and Sam Bennett on the way next season.

Not only might one or more of those players prove to be attractive to a team wanting to move a defenseman but I would imagine the Arizona Coyotes could make an offer that would send Antoine Vermette to the Flames for a potential playoff run.

Brian Burke teams have a history of swinging big trades so don’t be surprised if the Flames pull off a blockbuster in the next few hours.

---

Another team to keep an eye on is the Florida Panthers. Dale Tallon has already acquired Jaromir Jagr and has just moved out Tomas Fleischmann’s $4.5M cap hit to the Ducks for Dany Heatley (buried in the minors) and a 3rd round pick. I expect another galosh to drop in south Florida very soon as the Panthers try to overtake the Bruins for the final wild card spot in the EC. Patrick Sharp?

---

Apparently the Toronto Maple Leafs are shopping centre Tyler Bozak very hard but there’s likely a limited market for what is essentially a 2nd line centre with a cap hit of $4.2M for another 3 seasons. It’s very difficult to predict which, if any teams might be interested in Bozak at that price point but some GM might step on his dink in order to get his team in the playoffs.

---

Lots of chatter that the Chicago Blackhawks are going to move Patrick Sharp (in the wake of persistent rumours he was involved in fisticuffs in the Hawks dressing room). Don’t be surprised if he ends up in Florida although there are other teams in the chase:

David Pagnotta ‏@TheFourthPeriod  13m13 minutes ago

Noises getting louder over Blackhawks discussing calls for Sharp, who has limited NMC. Told WAS, MTL, DET have serious interest.

---

I expect the Arizona Coyotes may be the most active team in the next few hours. Along with aforementioned Vermette, the Coyotes may also deal Keith Yandle, Sam Gagner, Martin Erat, and Zbynek Michalek. Don Maloney could be holding a raft of draft picks if most or all of those players are moved.

---

 

I’ll update this post later in the afternoon as the dominoes begin to fall.

Too Many Defensemen?

 

Just a quick note before heading out for a couple of days in Tofino.

I knew how devastated the Canucks have been by injury but really hadn’t clued in as to the severity of the problem on their blueline.

As one Vancouver newspaper columnist opined this morning, the Canucks D is basically a “swing band called Hamhuis and the Utica Comets”.

The Canucks top 7D going into the season:

Hamhuis (missed 22 games earlier)

Edler

Bieksa

Tanev

Sbisa

Corrado

Stanton

The Canucks went into Boston two nights ago with a D lineup that featured, Dan Hamhuis, Luca Sbisa, Yannik Weber, Ryan Stanton, Adam Clendenning and Alex Biega, whoever that is.

Considering the Canucks were also out forwards Alex Burrows and Brad Richardson and goaltender Ryan Miller, their victory over the Bruins is noteworthy.

That the Canucks are 7-3-0 in their last 10GP while missing essentially 1/3 of their lineup is even more impressive.

In addition to the Canucks surprising defensive depth. I think it’s worth noting that the Canucks bottom 6 forward group has been much stronger than the rag-tag bunch that held the team back in previous seasons.

Led by Shawn Matthias (12G), rookie centre Bo Harvat (9G), Jannik Hansen (11G) and shift disturber Derek Dorsett, the Canucks have been getting tremendously balanced scoring and, when they start getting regulars back from injury, may be primed for a surprising run in the playoffs.

With Chicago missing Patrick Kane and Anaheim struggling (4-5-1) there may be an opportunity for the Canucks to make some headway in the post season.

While I would hardly call them favourites for a long playoff run, they have held their heads above water in the WC (16-14-2) and in the Pacific Division (10-7-2).

It’ll be interesting to see if Jim Benning adds any pieces at the deadline or stands pat and gets his infusion of energy from his returning players.

 

 

 

 

Snap Shots

 

1) The Minnesota Wild have been charging up the WC standings and, for the first time this season are now in a playoff position.You may recall I have been saying for months that the Wild should not be overlooked given they outshoot their opposition by an average of almost 5 shots per game. They were sewered early in the season by dreadful goaltending but, now that Devan Dubnyk has been providing them with .925 goaltending, they are 8-1-1 in their last 10 with a guaranteed win against the Edmonton Oilers up next. The Wild are only 6 points back of Chicago in the Central Division and hold a game in hand so this is going to get very interesting.

2) It appears Winnipeg and Calgary are going to duke it out for the final wildcard spot in the WC. It’s unfortunate since I think it would do the game a whole lot of good if both teams made it.

3) Was just glancing at how teams fared against the dominant WC. The Edmonton Oilers have played 36 games against the west. They’ve won 4 and lost 32. That gives us a pretty good idea of how far they are from becoming a playoff team in the west.

4) It appears those writing off the Sedins as a spent force in Vancouver may have to eat some crow. Henrik Sedin is currently in 11th place in scoring among centres while brother Daniel is currently in 7th spot among LW’s.

5) A personal favourite on mine in the rookie of the year race just keeps impressing. Dallas Stars rookie D John Klingberg who has 10G and 32P in only 46 games played. Projected over a full 82 game season that would be 57 points. Also worth noting is that Klingberg has passed Aaron Ekblad  (who is having a phenomenal seasons as an 18 year old) in points.

6) Vancouver rookie Bo Horvat is impressing more and more every day. Despite playing 4th line minutes, Horvat has 9G and 18P. His P/60 5V5 of 1.99 is much better than players like Nathan MacKinnon (1.92) Nazem Kadri (1.82) and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (1.77). It’ll be interesting to see how he does with more minutes against tougher competition but it appears he is NHL ready.

7) Horvat is starting to make the Corey Schneider trade to the Devils look like a win-win. Schneider has been very good in NJ with a .926 save percentage behind a bad team and posted another shutout tonight against Arizona. Vancouver goalie Ryan Miller is out with a knee problem so Eddie Lack (.917) will be getting more starts and the Canucks have called up Jacob Markstrom from the AHL where he has been phenomenal (.932). Hard to imagine that, in a very short time after moving two of the best goalies in the NHL, the Canucks now have 3 who appear to be NHL calibre.

8) Not much new to report in the Great Tank Battle. Carolina will likely pass the Leafs and the Oilers may pass the Coyotes. This seems reasonable:

1) Buffalo

2) Arizona

3) Edmonton

4) Toronto

9) The season ticket drive in Las Vegas has reached 70 percent of its goal so it appears very, very likely that Sin City will be joining the league in 2016/17.

10) Just a hunch…but keep an eye on the Calgary Flames at the trade deadline. If they can find a couple of players who can help now and in the future, I think you may see them add a forward and a defenseman. A deal for Keith Yandle wouldn’t surprise me. Calgary has the assets and the cap space to get this done.

The Full Johnny

 

Just back from a visit catching up with some old friends on bucolic Denman Island off the coast of Vancouver Island. Pictured is the largest commercial structure on Denman and, when I visited it last night, it was exactly as portrayed. I had the opportunity  misfortune of getting into line behind one of many Denman Island icons named “Johnny”.

Johnny is just one of many “characters” on Denman including other residents, either full time or part time, like X Files star Jillian Anderson, world renowned glass blower Robert Held, a bevy of environmental scientists and activists as well as the detritus of the American draft dodgers who escaped into the back country and remain there until today.

But Johnny has his own special charm and I had a first hand experience of why he is one of the most well known residents of the island.

Johnny’s main claim to fame is his legendary lack of personal hygiene and, when having the opportunity misfortune to line up behind him at the stores’ till/liquor counter I received a gift that just keeps on giving…just like when your dog gets sprayed by an annoyed skunk.

Johnny (who appeared in the General Store shirtless, with the filthiest pair of jeans I had ever seen allowing the display of at least 6 inches of plumbers’ butt and with a 8 inch Bowie knife hanging from his rope belt) treated me to his special gift and my friends explained that, folks on Denman, when sniffing their own armpits for any offensive odours will say things like “yeah, I’m a Little Johnny today” or “good grief, I’m Full Johnny today, , I’d better have a shower”.

Which brings us naturally to the subject of Johnny Boychuk.

There is palpable trembling in some quarters of the Oiler blog world that Johnny Boychuk should be a target for a massive, long free agent contract in the offseason.

Oops…wait a minute?

Ask yourself…what would Dean Lombardi do?

Well, I think it’s reasonable that Dean would first identify his teams’ “window to win” and only when he was absolutely sure that was going to be in the next 1 or 2 seasons would he commit huge long term dollars to a 31 year old defenseman who isn’t even the Islanders best defenseman (Nick Leddy is…go look it up yourself.)

While signing Boychuk to, say a $6 million 5 or 6 year contract might not be the “Full Johnny”, I would wager who ever the Oilers GM is after Craig MacTavish finishes blowing off both of his feet, would be asking himself if he was a “Little Johnny” with an aging defenseman on a bloated contract and a team still not good enough to be  contender.

There a lot of miles to go before the Oilers can consider themselves any kind of threat in the WC and acquiring an expensive rearguard is not only foolish in and of itself, a contract like that would severely limit the cap flexibility that the overspending Oilers will need in the next 2-3 years.

No, Dean would use some of his excess forwards (remember than the Oilers will likely soon have another high end forward from the draft and also have Draisaitl on the way) to trade for a young defenseman (the 23 year old Nick Leddy would have been perfect but that train has sailed)  with sure 1st pairing potential.

Oliver Ekmann-Larsson fits that profile perfectly and while Arizona would surely be loathe to move him, the Oilers do have the “marketable” assets that the Coyotes desperately need.

It would take a game changing, BOLD move by McTavish to make that deal happen but, if the Oilers draft one of the high end forwards this year, they could more comfortably move one of their “core youngsters” to make it work.

That’s what Dean would do.

 

 

 

Oops…I Did it Again…and Again

 

Just a quick note on a busy Friday regarding news that the Edmonton Oilers have signed Rob Klinkhammer and Ryan Hamilton to one year contract extensions.

Why?

Was there some doubt that other teams would be beating down the doors to try and swoop in and snatch these players from the Oilers grasp in the offseason?

I’d wager, with the likelihood that the salary cap next season could be flat…or worse…there is going to be a flood of pretty good hockey players hitting the open market as teams in cap trouble…and there will be more than a few…will be jettisoning players like passengers on the Titanic.

To me, a wise approach right now and into the offseason is to leave as much cap space and contract positions (50 is the limit) open to maximize flexibility of picking up better players in the aftermath of Capageddon ®.

Obviously the Oilers don’t see it that way.

 

 

Good Grief!

 

There is a day(s) long debate going on over at Lowetide dealing with whether or not Ryan Nugent-Hopkins  is a legitimate #1C.

He isn’t.

There is a lot of blather about how he’s playing tough competition, is hampered by the Oilers lack of puck moving defensemen and is playing with stiffs.

That, of course, is nonsense.

Many other recent draft picks face those same obstacles and are having much more success than Hopkins.

Hopkins had a great rookie season buoyed by an unsustainable 13.4 shooting percentage but has settled to a more normal 10.6 career shooting percentage. The larger sample size is, of course, much more representative of what we can expect going forward.

Now, don’t get me wrong, I think Hopkins is a very good hockey player and he may have another level to get to but he just doesn’t produce the scoring numbers to be a #1C NOW and based on what we’ve seen he may never reach that level.

Hopkins is currently ranked 64th in 5V5 P/60 at 1.69 (very mediocre)

On the PP he is currently ranked 96th at 2.15 (that is dreadful).

If we look at his draft class (2011) Gabriel Landeskog has more GP,  more goals and more points.

Landeskog also plays with a porous defense, plays the toughest competition and is far and away better than Hopkins at evens (1.81) and on the PP (3.88)

This isn’t close folks.

There are many young centres in the Hopkins age range that are out producing him 5V5:

Ryan Strome: 2.77

Josh Bailey -2.62

Tyler Seguin – 2.54

Nick Bonino – 2.28

Matt Duchene – 2.22

Alex Galchenyuk – 2.17

Nick Bjugstad – 2.10

Ryan Johansen  – 2.09

Nathan MacKinnonn – 1.91

Hopkins – 1.69

GCW-Rocks has been fighting a valiant fight over at Lowetide trying to convince the hive mind there that Hopkins is likely a very good #2C but the force of the hive is convinced that  Hopkins is the next Pavel Datsyuk.

While that may be true, it’s also possible Hopkins is the next Tyler Bozak.

I’d put my money on the latter.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Handicapping the Playoff Races

The playoff race in the EC is all but over. The Florida Panthers could still track down the Boston Bruins for the last wild card spot so there is that.

But in the WC, things are much more interesting.

As of this writing, 6 teams are still in the running for the final 4 spots in the playoffs.

Let’s take a look at their chances.

Vancouver would appear to be in the catbird seat with 65 points in 55GP and they have games in hand over San Jose (3), Winnipeg (2) and Calgary (1). They also hold the tie breaker of regulation wins (29) over Calgary (28), San Jose (27), Minnesota (26), Winnipeg (24), Los Angeles (24) and Dallas (24).

But…the Canucks are down two of their top 4 defensemen in Edler and Bieksa and may find it difficult to win without them.

Those Stazis discount “momentum” but, believe me, confidence plays a huge part in the performance of sports teams and the Minnesota Wild are on a huge roll.

Buoyed by the goaltending of Devan Dubnyk (who could have seen that coming) the Wild are 8-0-2 in their last 10 games and may overtake the Winnipeg Jets in the Central Division.

Winnipeg has a 5 point lead but Minnesota has 3 games in hand and could close that gap pretty quickly.

The 4 Pacific teams vying for a post season berth, San Jose, Vancouver, Calgary and Los Angeles are within 4 points of each other and all are playing around .500 hockey in their last 10 GP.

If forced to make a wager right now, I would go with this for the top 8 teams in the WC:

1) NSH

2) STL

3) ANA

4) CHI

5) CAL

6) MIN

7) VCR

8) WPG

Wow. The 1st round of the playoffs should be epic.

Snap Shots

 

1) So, the fire sale has begun in Toronto with the Nashville Predators swooping in and picking up two of the better players on the Leafs roster. The trade essentially breaks down as a low 1st round pick to Toronto for Franson (a player I like a lot) and  Brendan Leipsic (a very good prospect who is playing well in the AHL) for Mike Santorelli. That both of the players acquired by Nashville are on expiring contracts leaves Nashville with cap flexibility in the offseason and gives them more firepower for a playoff run. But that also means Toronto did very, very well in the trade by getting a 1st for Franson and I would imagine the Leafs may add another 1st pick or two as they burn things to the ground.

2)  The Vancouver Canucks could be in big trouble as they try to hang on to a playoff spot. #1D Alex Edler is out with an “upper body injury” and join Kevin Bieksa (broken hand) on the walking wounded list. Cody Franson would look pretty good in Vancouver right now but Nashville got their first.

3) The Calgary Flames are like that bad smell that just won’t go away. They remain in the last wild card spot after a 3-2 win over the Canucks last night but both Minnesota (8-0-2 in their last 10 GP) and the LA Kings (winners of 4 straight) are charging hard. Calgary can’t afford to lose so it’ll be fun to watch them fight and claw for the remaining games in the season.

4) There were more than a few critics (mainly Oilers fans) of Flames centre Sean Monahan’s performance last season suggesting he was lucky to score 22 goals because he had an “unsustainable” 15.7 shooting percentage. Well, his percentage has dropped a bit this season to 14.1 but, playing on a line with Jiri Hudler and Johnny Gadreau, Monahan is putting up even better numbers this season and is on pace for 28 goals and 52 points. Looks like it WAS sustainable.

5) Speaking of Gaudreau…he continues to pile up points and is on pace for 22 goals and 62 points and remains in the running for the Calder Trophy although Filip Forsberg has an 8 point lead.

6) But for my money, Florida Panthers rookie defenseman Aaron Ekblad is the rookie of the year. Ekblad, who turned 19 just last week, is playing more than 22 minutes a game for the Cats (tied for second on the team) and is putting up exceptional scoring numbers for a rookie (on pace for 13 goals and 47 points).

7) Stop the Parade! After absorbing a 7-2 beating at the hands of the Ottawa Senators yesterday, the Oilers are now 9-11-2 under Todd Nelson. As mentioned yesterday, the Oilers next 5 games are against the big, heavy Winnipeg Jets, Boston and then a WC heavy schedule that kicks off with 2 games against the streaking Wild, Anaheim and St. Louis. Worth noting the Oilers are 4-21-8 against the west this season.

8) There’s continuing speculation that the LA Kings and the Toronto Maple Leafs are working on a deal that would see Mike Richards and Dion Phaneuf trade teams. That’s a deal with plenty of complications but makes sense on several levels. Phaneuf would be a great pick up for LA’s second pairing (despite the price) and the Leafs could certainly use Richards as a stop gap while their rebuild develops. Richards is an Ontario boy and perhaps a move to the ACC might kick start his career. If, as rumoured, the Leafs trade Tyler Bozak, they will certainly need SOMEONE to play centre.

9) The Florida Panthers remain 4 points out of a wild card spot in the EC with a game in hand on the Bruins. GM Dale Tallon is reportedly shopping veterans on expiring contracts including Sean Bergenheim, Thomas Fleischmann, and Tomas Kopecky. Must be a difficult time for “Trader Dale”, one of the most active GM’s in recent years. I would imagine he will be able to move all of those players for late round picks but runs the risk of losing out on playoff revenue.

10) Back to the Flames for a moment…Calgary is sitting on the most free cap space in the league AND the second best prospect pool in the NHL. The Flames have flexibility to take on any contract and could, of course, extract a King’s ransom from any team that needs to dump salary now, or in the offseason. Keep a close eye on what happens in Calgary since the Burke regime is in a perfect spot to either load up for the playoffs or finish their rebuild in the offseason. I doubt they want Phaneuf back but Phil Kessel might be a very interesting addition if they can get the Leafs to retain some salary in return for a couple of prospects or picks. It’s a good time to be Brian Burke!

 

The Puppet Master

 

There are still scores of apologists who want you to believe that Kevin Lowe has recused himself from day to day decisions regarding the hopeless, hapless Edmonton Oilers.

That, as I’ve maintained for years, is a pile of horse puckies.

Over the last 10 days, Lowe has been spotted scouting several OHL games and has also been in the building while the Oilers are playing.

That’s very unusual behaviour for someone who is “hands off” in day to day decision making.

In fact, as I’ve said many times, nothing happens with the Oilers without Lowe’s stamp of approval…NOTHING.

Lowe’s fingerprints are all over the current team and its futility, just as they have been for the past 9 years of incompetence.

The latest word from the agent representing the Oilers best defenseman, Jeff Petry, is that the Oilers have not made even cursory attempts to negotiate a contract with Petry’s camp and Lowe/MacTavish are bound and determined to watch him walk away for peanuts to nothing at all.

Bumping Lowe up to POHO was nothing more than a PR stunt to take the heat off him while he is allowed to continue his sorry record of cronyism and incompetence.

Bringing in Bob Nicholson to conduct “a forensic audit” of the organization was just an effort to provide Lowe with another layer of insulation from the real world.

I would imagine, after another sad, sad season there will be a bloodletting of some members of the staff (likely the scouting staff…for good reason) but the man who hired and nurtured that group of failures and also hired Tambellini, McTavish, Eakins and the lame duck Todd Nelson will carry on with his vision of “what it takes to win…if ever there was a doubt about that”.

What a circus.

 

 

Don’t Look Now…

 

As of this writing…the Toronto Maple Leafs are playing the Montreal Canadiens.

If they lose, as expected, they’ll be a scant 3 points ahead of the Arizona Coyotes (pending the Coyotes home game against the Rangers).

Carolina is 5 points back of the Leafs but have 3 games in hand so it’s entirely reasonable to assume the Leafs will be in 3rd spot in the draft lottery a week from now.

The Sabres and Oilers are so bad it’s highly unlikely the Leafs can out suck them but I would imagine a team like the the Leafs that is about to blow things up could start a “down to the wood” rebuild with the 3rd overall pick with a decent shot of getting Connor McDavid or Jack Eichel.

Worth mentioning that McDavid, a Toronto boy, has expressed a great deal of interest in being drafted by the Leafs.

The most highly touted hockey prospect since Sidney Crosby delivered music to the ears of Leafs Nation this weekend.

“That would be an absolute dream come true,” Connor McDovaid told Mike Zeisberger of the Toronto Sun when asked about the possibility of becoming a member of the Toronto Maple Leafs. “It’s pretty crazy to even think about.”

“I’m from Toronto. You have to be a Leafs fan,” McDavid said in the article. “So, of course, I was. Of course. My dad was a Leafs fan. Every Saturday night watching Hockey Night in Canada would be my favourite time.”

Toronto is the most important franchise in the National Hockey League. It leads the league in revenue generated, in appreciating franchise values and I would wager that Gary Bettman is tuned into what’s transpiring in Toronto in a major way.

Don’t be surprised if the Leafs officially start their rebuild by drafting the best player since Sidney Crosby.

---

Speaking of the Oilers, there’s lots of blather on Lowetide and other Oiler fanboy sites about how the team has “turned north” under Todd Nelson.

Nonsense, of course.

The Oilers are 9-10-2 under Nelson with their 6 remaining games in February against Winnipeg, Boston, Minnesota (twice), Anaheim and St. Louis.

I would be surprised if the Oilers win 2 of those games.

Also worth noting is that, if the Oilers played at a season long pace of 9-10-2 over 82 games, they would still finish in 13th place in the WC.

You can’t see north from here.

---

Tough break for Tyler Seguin and the Dallas Stars after the Star’s centre will be out for 3-6 weeks with a knee injury after being low bridged by Dmitri Kulikov.

That ends any thoughts of Seguin winning a scoring title and likely is also the end of the Stars’ playoff hopes since Ales Hemsky and Patrick Eaves were also injured in the same game