Even Strength Scoring

 

This is Tyler Johnson.

Johnson was an undrafted free agent who may be the biggest steal in the NHL in the past couple of decades.

If you’re unfamiliar with Johnson…here’s a bit of info:

2009-10: Johnson was the second-leading goal scorer for WHL Spokane and participated in his second world junior tournament. Johnson scored 36 goals with 35 assists and was +14 with 32 PMs on a Chiefs team that finished two points behind US Division champion and WHL playoff runner-up Tri-City. He scored 11 of his 36 goals on the power play. In seven playoff goes he scored 3 goals with 5 assists and was -1. Johnson scored 3 goals with 2 assists and was +4 with 25 PMs in seven games for gold medal-winning USA at the 2010 U20 World Junior Championship.

 

2010-11: Johnson skated for the Minnesota Wild in the Traverse City tournament and attended Wild camp but was not signed to a contract and returned to Spokane for an over-age season. Johnson led the WHL with 53 goals and was named to the WHL First All-Star team as a 20-year-old. In 71 games with the Chiefs he was +27 and had 62 assists. His 115 points were one behind WHL-leader Linden Vey (LAK). In fourteen playoff games for the Chiefs he scored 7 goals with 7 assists and was +3 with 9 PMs. Johnson signed a three-year, entry-level contract with Tampa Bay in March, 2011.

 

2011-12: Johnson was the third-leading scorer for the Lightning’s AHL affiliate in Norfolk in his first pro season. He scored 31 goals with 37 assists and was plus-17 with 28 penalty minutes in 75 games. The Admirals captured the AHL’s Calder Cup championship in the playoffs after finishing first in the East Division. Johnson had 6 goals with 8 assists in 14 playoff games and was plus-eight with 6 penalty minutes.

 

2012-13: Johnson made his NHL debut with the Lightning in March after leading Tampa Bay AHL affiliate Syracuse in scoring in his second pro season. Johnson provided a spark to the offense, scoring 3 goals with 3 assists and finishing +3 with 4 penalty minutes in 14 games with Tampa Bay. In 62 games for Syracuse he scored 37 goals with 28 assists and was +26 with 34 penalty minutes. The Crunch finished first in the East Division and reached the AHL Finals against Calder Cup champion Grand Rapids.

 

Johnson went undrafted because of his size…5’8″ 165…and is making 29 NHL General Managers looking like fools because he leads the NHL 5V5 P/60 with 3.15

I’ve always thought the measure of a player is how effective he is at even strength.

There are some players who feast on the power play but those points are subject to the vicissitudes of power play opportunities and success which goes up and down like a widow’s nightdress.

Now, when you consider that Johnson’s line mates Andrej Palat (2.96) and Nikita Kucherov (2.95) are 3RD and 4TH in the league at evens, it’s no wonder the Lightning are one of the best teams in the league.

Looking over the top 25…a few names stand out…some for who is on the list and some who aren’t.

Rick Nash has been a beast this year at 3.09 and seeing Vladimir Tarasenko (2.83) in 6th spot portends his future superstardom.

The Dallas Stars have 2 players, Jamie Benn (2.58) and Tyler Seguin (2.48) in the top 25 so, if the Stars ever sort out their goaltending, they’ll be tough to beat.

But perhaps the most surprising name on the list is Jiri Hudler (2.68) in 8th place. Hudler is having a fantastic season mentoring two young players in Sean Monahan and Johnny Gaudreau and was actually the league’s leading scorer in the month of March edging out the Canucks Radim Vrbata.

For the Oiler fans who frequent these parts…the news is dreadful.

The Oilers best even strength scorer is Benoit Pouliot at 2.14 (63rd on the list) while Taylor Hall (1.99), Jordan Eberle (1.89) and Ryan Nugent Hopkins (1.85) are not scoring anywhere near the rate their draft pedigree would warrant.

It’s no surprise that the Oilers are 26th in the league in GF/G.

 

 

Grasping at Straws

 

In an apparent effort to defend the drafting of Anton Lander 40th overall in the 2009 NHL draft, there are more than a few Oiler fans declaring that Anton Lander has “finally arrived”

Of course…that’s nonsense.

Let’s examine the actual evidence.

Lander has played 26 games for the Oilers this season…scoring 6 goals and 13 points…and racking up a -12 rating.

What the fanboys are ignoring is that Lander has 4 goals and 6 points on the power play meaning he has scored 2 goals and 7 points at even strength.

Lander is also riding a 17.1 shooting percentage while his career shooting percentage is 6.8 percent.

I think it’s likely the penny has dropped for him somewhat offensively this season but his numbers are all based on a very small sample size on the PP and with a totally unsustainable shooting percentage.

He’s still getting his head kicked in at even strength and since he is averaging just over 1 shot per game…that ain’t going to change.

Now, let’s take a look at a few players who were drafted AFTER Lander in the second round. We’ll do this by PPG since the number of games played varies widely depending on the development strategy of the team drafting the player.

Tomas Tatar – .568

Brandon Pirri – .489

Eric Gelinas – .405

Drew Shore – .297

Richard Panik – .269

Jeremy Morin – .267

Dimitri Orlov – .261

Anton Lander – .017

And then there are all the later round picks who have passed Lander by like a house on the side of the road.

Tyson Barrie, Brayden McNabb, Reilly Smith, Taylor Beck, Cody Eakin, Casey Cizikas, Mattias Ekholm, Marcus Foligno, Sami Vatanen, Marcus Kruger, Anders Lee and Jordan Nolan are just some of the players who are showing more promise than Lander and unless Lander can find a way to contribute offence while getting 1 SOG per game or become a shut down defensive beast…he’s a whiff at #40…6 years ago.

You can find better 3rd line centres in the remainder bin every offseason so spending 6 years developing a mediocre one is a waste of time and resources.

 

 

Hot Dog!

I don’t normally post right after a game as I like to take some time to gather my thoughts.

But, after watching the Oilers lose their 10th straight my thoughts have been fully gathered.

Taylor Hall, almost single handedly, cost his team a game that it desperately needed to win.

His turnovers and lack of discipline were the deciding factors in the game and HE DIDN”T MISS A SHIFT.

I almost always watch the away broadcasts of Oilers games since I feel like upchucking listening to the simpering play by play and “analysis” provided by the Oilers broadcast team so I can tell you the Phoenix broadcast crew was thunderstruck that Hall’s selfish performance didn’t result in an immediate and extended benching.

However, Hall’s performance caught his captain’s eye:

“Floating around expecting another team to lie down because you’re so great? It doesn’t happen.” – Ference.

“We start a period with a power play, you’re looking for some jump. You allow two (SHG) on the same power play? It’s a joke.” – Ference

 

Ryan Rishaug:

Andrew Ference with some strong criticism of the dressing room. Didn’t name names but called it “a joke” some of what’s happening in there. Ference was referring to certain players having to be convinced to be happy to be in NHL and not moping around feeling sorry for themselves.Says its been addressed countless times in room. Eakins admitted it’s an issue but wouldn’t elaborate at all. Says it’s an internal issue

Anyone who’s been around my opinions long enough would know that I’ve always thought Hall was far less than he seems. He has ALWAYS given up more than he creates and nothing has changed in his 5th season in the league.

Some of you may remember in his draft year that there were reports his head was too big to fit inside a dressing room and it appears those reports may have had some foundation and, unless the team finds some effective way to address the issue. Hall will continue to be a highly skilled liability.

There are those in the Oilers blogging community who still regard Hall as a golden boy…it’ll be interesting to see how they react as this plays out.

Sometimes you have to call a spade a big fucking shovel.

Now, please pass the Seguin….

****A Tuesday Morning Edit****

Ray Ferraro, to mind my, is along with Bob McKenzie and Pierre LeBrun, one of the brightest minds in the hockey analysis biz..

Ferraro was on a Toronto radio station this morning and ripped Kevin Lowe, Stu McGregor (and his draft record). Worth a listen.

http://www.tsn.ca/radio/ferraro-there-is-nothing-positive-in-edmonton-right-now-1.149797

 

Snap Shots

 

 

It appears the Colorado Avalanche may have achieved ignition….going 6-4-0 in their last 10GP. Worth noting they are only 5 points out of the final wild card spot with a game in hand. The problem is that Minnesota, San Jose and Dallas are even closer.

The Vancouver Canucks have exceeded pretty much every expectation this season…including mine. Their success is based on FOUR scoring lines. Their normal 4th line of C Bo Horvat (4P in 10G), Shawn Matthias (7P) and Derrick Dorsett (8P) is certainly pulling its weight and rookie Horvat has an eye-popping 61.2% in the face off circle.

Speaking of the Canucks…a couple of weeks back I noted they were deficient in the 5V5 F/A metric…but now, going into todays game against the Red Wings, they sit at exactly 1.00…a massive improvement. Nashville is by far the best at outscoring at evens at…1.75 while Edmonton (0.64) and Columbus (0.54) are dreadful.

If Nashville ever gets their 26th ranked PP (12.2%) going, they should be all but unbeatable.

Remember the guy who was picked right after Sam Gagner in the 2007 NHL draft? I do.  Jakub Voracek has 32 points in 23 games this season. Wellwood Gagner has 9.

The Calgary Flames have 6 players with more points that Taylor Hall, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Jordan Eberle.

There are 6 teams in the NHL that are scoring an average of 3 or more goals per game. Who would have thought that 4 of those 6 would be the Toronto Maple Leafs, the Calgary Flames, the New York Islanders and the Vancouver Canucks?

An article in USA Today caught my eye this morning:

In 1997-98, the New York Rangers led the NHL with 871 blocked shots and most teams had a total below 700. Last season, the Montreal Canadiens led with 1,491 blocked shots, an average of 18 a game. Four of the 30 teams blocked fewer than 1,000 shots.

I would hope the league is keeping a close eye on this as shot blocking has the potential to kill offence to a degree the game could become unwatchable. I would support a rule change that stipulates leaving your feet to block a shot results in a minor penalty.

Will Craig Berube be the first coach fired this season? I imagine so but there are several other candidates who are at least as deserving…Dallas Eakins and Todd Richards…come immediately to mind. The odds on bet before the season began was Randy Carlyle but he has his Leafs in a playoff position with a record of 6-3-1 in their last 10GP.

 

At the Quarter Pole

 

More than a few teams have reached the 20 game point of the season, a time when you can begin to suss out winers, losers, also rans or the lucky/unlucky.

1) Let’s start with chances of making the playoffs which is, after all, the point of all this.

Some teams will try and sell their fans on “process” or “progress” but that’s just nonsense since any perceived improvement in those areas is very serendipitous and often does not carry over to following seasons.

As things stands now, there are 4 teams with a better than 90% chance of making the playoffs…Pittsburgh, Nashville, Tampa Bay and St. Louis. It would take an act of God for them to miss out on the post season.

Then there are another 5 teams with a better than 80% chance…Detroit, Calgary, Anaheim, Los Angeles and the Islanders, who will make it if they keep playing well. The surprises there are Calgary and, perhaps, the Islanders and most observers believe the Calgary Flames  will fall out of that group based on their inflated scoring percentages. It’ll be interesting to watch.

At the other end of the spectrum are the teams whose seasons have already gone in the dumpster…Buffalo, Columbus, Edmonton, Dallas and Colorado who all have a less than 10% chance of seeing any playoff action this season. Buffalo (in the middle of a scorched earth rebuild) and Columbus (suffering from one of the worst runs of injury I’ve ever seen) can be forgiven but the other 3 teams really have no excuse. The Oilers (dreadful management and coaching decisions) Colorado (letting Statsny walk and bringing in a couple of warhorses) and Dallas (not addressing their D and backup goaltending) are getting pretty much what they deserve.

2) Much has been made in the past couple of days about the woes of the Toronto Maple Leafs and I won’t belabor the Toronto situation since analysis of their woes is everywhere but it’s only today that the mess that is the Edmonton Oilers is beginning to get a lot of attention from the national media.

from Pierre LeBrun of ESPN,

There was so much focus on Toronto yesterday in the aftermath of the embarrassing loss to the Predators, but I suspect we need to keep just as close an eye on Edmonton, where the Oilers dropped to 0-9-1 against Western Conference teams this season with the loss to Vancouver. Simply unacceptable.

I know management in Edmonton was not going to sit on its hands and let another debacle of a season roll by without any action. They’re craving a trade for a center, although that’s easier said than done. And you wonder about the job security for Eakins if the losses continue. Not sure exactly which direction Oilers management will go, but if the losing continues, I’ll be shocked if something doesn’t happen in the next month or two.

@ESPN_Burnside:

The reality is that Wednesday’s loss gives them the 28th-worst winning percentage in the league at .368. While teams like Winnipeg and Calgary are being rewarded for their organizational patience with strong first quarters of the season, the Oilers are exactly where they’ve been for most of a decade, which suggests it’s not so much patience they’re displaying, but incompetence.

 

@CraigCustance:

Not to pile on the Oilers here, but I’m with Pierre and Scott. Edmonton can’t sit around while the losing continues. There are definitely flaws on the roster, but the time to trade a major piece — like Jordan Eberle — is probably in the offseason when your options are highest among potential trading partners.

 

And one of the most respected writers in the “sphere” Tom Benjamin, dropped by Lowetide today to deliver this missive:

I’ve been blaming Kevin Lowe from about 2000, and I’m not stopping now. He’s the one who built this organization and directly or indirectly hired every person in it. Say what you want about a guy like Brian Burke – he knows exactly what he wants his team to look like and he sets out to put his vision on the ice. I have never been able to understand what Lowe is trying to do. If Lowe is incompetent – and I think he is – the organization is incompetent while good organizations win.

Every player has individual strengths and weaknesses. The problem with the Oilers is the collective strengths. The Bruins are the Bruins because they have lots of players who are big and bad. Team speed is probably a weakness, but the Bruins don’t go out and try to find a speedster to address it. They want more big, more bad because they win with grinding, not with speed. There are different ways. You start with what you have and you build upon the strengths.

 

Other than Firing Kevin Lowe and cleaning house (which is exactly what the team needs to do) I’m not sure where the Oilers go from here. Changing coaches now won’t result in any appreciable difference this season and it’s too late for Craig MacTavish to do the work he should have done in the past two offseason but, as I’ve been saying for years, the Oilers need a true #1C (RNH does not produce offence at the level of a #1C) TWO top pairing defensemen and above average goaltending.

The Oiler brass in all versions of their rebuild, have ignored the need for a winning NHL team to be built from the back end out and down the middle and no amount of fiddling around the edges is going to change that. I guess an Oiler fan can hope that the Oilers draft McDavid or Eichel and that Darnell Nurse someday turns into a top pairing D but, at some point, I expect another roster teardown is going to be required to turn this thing around. Unbelievably, the Oilers are going to face cap issues as early as next season and adding another high first round pick with maximum bonuses is going to make that problem worse, not better.

 

 

3) One team that I’ve been keeping an aye on is the Minnesota Wild. The Wild have only played 17 games and with as many as 4 games in hand can be expected to rocket up the WC standings.  The Wild has a 7-2-0 record agains the WC and a solid record in almost every statistical category. They have outshot their opponents by nearly 10 shots per game, have a 1.19 EV F/A record and their PP has finally come alive. By the half way point in the season, I expect they’ll be solidly in a playoff position likely bumping Winnipeg out.

4) The Vancouver Canucks are not as good as their 13-6-0 record would indicate. They only have a +2 goal differential despite playing the Edmonton Oilers 4 times already, they’re basically even in shot differential and they are only at 0.80 in 5V5 F/A better than only Buffalo (0.56), Columbus (0.60), Edmonton (0.72) and Colorado (0.79). They won’t continue winning at their current rate if they don’t turn that around.

5) The Nashville Predators should serve as an example to teams like the aforementioned Maple Leafs and Oilers that a smart GM who knows what his team needs and goes out and gets it while shedding under performers can have a lot of success. Both the Oilers and Leafs needed a veteran centre in the offseason but David Poile, with the same need went  out and signed 3 to add to his roster and, despite losing Mike Fisher to injury early, the Preds have never looked back.  The Predators have been a revelation at even strength with an astounding 1.95 5V5 F/A compensating for a PP that is running at only 14.6%. If they ever get that PP cranked up, watch out! And, of course there is 2012 1st round draft pick leading the team in scoring and making both Washington who traded him and Edmonton, who picked Nail Yakupov in that same draft, look downright stupid.

6) Scoring 50 goals in the NHL is a very difficult thing to do….it’s only been done 6 times in the past 5 full seasons. But there are 5 or 6 players with a shot at it this season based on pro-rated projections:

Tyler Seguin – 60

Rick Nash – 56

Steven Stamkos – 49

Phil Kessel – 47

Vladimir Tarasenko – 46

Corey Perry – 45 (despite missing games because of a case of the mumps).

7) Speaking of Tarasenko…here’s a top 10 update on the Russians Are Coming:

Tarasenko 10G 11A 21P

Malkin 7G 13A 20P

Kucherov 1G 10 17P

Ovechkin 8G 8A 16P

Datsyuk  5G 6A 11P (in only 10GP)

Kulemin 3G 6A 9P

Yakupov 3G 6A 9P

Markov 1g 8A 9P

Namestnikov 3G 4A 7P

Kuznetsov 1G 5A 6P

 

Top Guns

 

 

Time for a look at who is delivering the mail (and who isn’t) so far this season.

There have been some remarkable early season performances by some of the top guns in the league and by some young players who are tearing up the league thus far.

Here’s a look at the top 30 scorers (minimum 10 games played) in the WC 5V5 P/60 thanks to Behind the Net.

WC

Tyler Toffoli – 4.57

Jeff Carter – 4.27

Nick Bonino – 3.89

Chris Higgins – 3.75

Tyler Seguin – 3.74

Jamie Benn – 3.70

Vladimir Tarasenko – 3.62

Tanner Pearson – 3.62

Filip Forsberg – 3.46

Joe Colborne 3.43

Ryan Carter – 3.36

Zach Parise 3.12

Corey Perry – 3.12

Ryan Getzlaf – 3.11

Martin Hanzal – 2.98

Blake Wheeler – 2.98

Jason Pominville – 2.95

Brandon Saad – 3.91

Thomas Vanek – 2.87

Mike Ribiero – 2.83

Jiri Hudler – 2.75

Justin Abdelkader – 2.73

Brian Bickell – 2.72

Joe Thornton – 2.69

James Neal – 2.61

Mason Raymond – 2.61

Taylor Hall – 2.59

Alex Burrows – 2.51

Joe Pavelski – 2.46

Jaden Schwartz – 2.46

A few observations.

There are some interesting names who didn’t make this list…Henrik (2.24) and Daniel (2.27) Sedin are absent although they are reasonably close. But what is striking is how much the Canucks second line has been contributing. Nick Bonino , Chris Higgins and Alex Burrows are all on this list supporting the notion that Willie Desjardins has the Canucks playing an effective 4 line game and silencing critics who thought the Canucks were a one line team without secondary scoring.

We’ve said it before but it bears repeating…the Kings “That 70’s Line” has been a dominant force thus far. They’ve slowed down recently so it will be interesting to see how they’re performing after another month but I think it’s fair to say that Tyler Toffoli has to represent one of the biggest 2nd round draft steals in recent memory.

The Dallas Stars appear to be on the verge of wasting a spectacular season from Tyler Seguin and Jamie Benn. Going into the season, we all knew the Stars had issues on D but to add to their woes, their goaltending has been pretty bad too. Kari Lehtonen has been below par at .904 while Anders Lindback has been nothing short of horrible at .852. You have to wonder how long Jim Nill will let that situation fester?

Likely the biggest surprise here is the absence of Jonathan Toews (1.43) and Patrick Kane (1.05)! Since the Hawks are leading the league is shots/game, I wouldn’t read too much into this right now but it’s certainly worth keeping an eye on.

Watch out for the Wild. The Wild have 3 players on this list and have the best team shot differential in the league. Despite that, they remain 10th in the WC and. at some point, that dam is going to be breached.

Some interesting numbers and trends emerge when you look at how teams are performing by this metric.

If we use 2.00 P/60 as a demarcation point for players who are performing adequately offensively and then see how many players teams have who are at or above that mark, we see the following:

Anaheim – 3 (Perry, Getzlaf, Silfverberg) Obviously the Ducks are relying on one line to do almost all their scoring)

Arizona – 4 (Hanzal, Boedker, Doan, Erat) Not bad but, when Martin Hanzal is your scoring leader, you’re likely in a spot of trouble)

Calgary – 5 (Colborne, Hudler, Raymond, Gaudreau, Giordano). Gaudreau and Giordano are pleasant surprises for Flames fans here. I wonder though how Colborne and Raymond will fare when they return from injury.

Chicago – 3 (Saad, Bickell, Versteeg) I don’t think it will be long before Toews and Kane join this party.

Colorado – 3 (Iginla, Tanguay, Duchene) What’s remarkable here is who is missing. Top guns Nathan MacKinnon (1.77), Ryan O’Reilly (1.14) and Gabriel Landeskog (0.84!) are having miserable seasons. No wonder the Avalanche are struggling.

Dallas – 6 (Seguin, Benn, Roussel, Spezza, Garbutt, Eaves) The Stars are having a superior offensive season but if you can’t keep the puck out of your own net, it doesn’t matter much.

Edmonton – 4 (Hall, Eberle,Hopkins, Pouliot) the Oilers “superstars” are all at the low end of the range and their performance has come against a steady diet of EC teams. Once their schedule balances out and they play the big boys in the WC, I think it’s possible they won’t have anyone in the top 30 and may have only 1 or 2 above the 2.00 marker. Also notable here is that former 1st round pick Nail Yakupov is at a dreadful 1.66 (134th in the league) substantially behind Flames 4th round pick Johnny Gaudreau (2.12) who is the same age.

Los Angeles – 3 (Toffoli, Carter, Pearson) It’s a good thing for the Kings that trio is shooting out the lights because no one else on the team is scoring much at all. Kopitar (1.68), Richards (1.48) and Justin Williams (0.68) have been dreadful thus far.

Minnesota – 6 (Carter, Parise, Pominville, Vanek, Zucker, Fontaine) The Wild have been killing it at even strength this season but their PP has only recently shown some signs of life.  At a staggering 5%, you just know that won’t last and the Wild will shoot up the standings.

Nashville – 4 (Forsberg, Ribiero, Neal, Roy) The 4 offensive players acquired by Nashville are doing what is required of them and considering the Predators are giving up fewer than 2 GPG, that should easily be enough to win them a playoff spot.

San Jose – 3 (Thornton, Pavelski, Couture) There is a huge drop off behind these 3 which would seem disappointing for the Sharks.

St. Louis – 3 (Tarasenko, Schwartz, Lehtera) Like Anaheim, the Blues have been relying on 1 line to carry the mail. Steen, Berglund and Backes have almost dropped off the face of the earth.

Vancouver – 5 (Bonino, Higgins, Burrows, Sedin, Sedin) and with Richardson at 1.99, The Canucks are battling the Wild for the most balanced attack in the league.

Winnipeg – 1 (Wheeler) This won’t end well.

 

 

 

Power Rankings

 

 

 

 

Every media outlet and its dog is producing a weekly “Power Rankings” column in virtually every sport known to man.

Normally they are nothing more than facile entertainment and don’t offer much insight beyond who won or lost games the previous week.

Scott Cullen, who is one of the TSN “analytics team”, usually does a pretty decent job of sussing out who is really good and who isn’t but his power rankings published today caught my eye because he ignored his own evidence to declare the Penguins should be atop the NHL weekly power rankings.

Cullen rates the Penguins #1 based on a couple of factors that even a stats noob could figure out as unsustainable:

G Marc-Andre Fleury has three shutouts in his last four starts, giving him a career-best .931 save percentage, and he’s doing it behind a team that is controlling play to the tune of nearly 56%, second only to Minnesota in unblocked shot attempts in score-close situations.

Cullen also cites Pittsburgh’s PP which is clicking at 41.9% as being a factor in their #1 ranking. He ignores the fact that last season’s best PP was the very same Pittsburgh Penguins at 23.4% and that’s an elite number.

He also ignores Fleury’s save percentage of .931 which is a country mile from his career percentage which is an underwhelming .911.

Can you spell REGRESSION?

Now, lets look at a comparison between the Penguins and his 3rd ranked Minnesota Wild, the team that is actually best in the league though the early part of the season.

GPG:

Pittsburgh – 4.10

Minnesota – 3.40

This is a clear win for the Penguins…but….

GAG:

Pittsburgh – 2.20

Minnesota – 1.80

GF/GA DIFF:

Pittsburgh – +1.90

Minnesota – +1.60

This narrows the Penguins lead to almost nil…but…

Pittsburgh has been relying on a PP percentage TWICE the expected performance at 41.9% while the Wild have only scored on only 6.4% of their PP chances.

Minnesota scored on 17.8% of their PP opportunities a year ago and regression to the mean, even before adding sniper Thomas Vanek, means they’ll be scoring more often in that discipline very soon.

And then, Cullen ignores his own evidence of “possession” as measured by FenClose which is merely an approximation but does have some value.

Fenclose %:

Minnesota – 61.6

Pittsburgh – 55.8

I prefer to use actually shot differential rather than proxies in this case because, to horribly mangle Wayne Gretzky’s statement years ago: “100% of the shots that don’t hit the net don’t go in”.

Shot Differential:

Minnesota – +12.1

Pittsburgh – +3.5

Cullen also ignores the fact that Minnesota has been playing tougher competition with 7 games against the WC while Pittsburgh has only played 4 games against the West.

Upon review…the Minnesota Wild have been the best team in the NHL thus far this season and considering they are a mere 1 point behind the Penguins in the overall standings after 10 games…it isn’t even close.

Oh, and here’s a bonus…Pittsburgh at Minnesota on Tuesday night!

 

Taylor Hall is NOT among the top 2 LW in the NHL.

As an aside, I have read a couple of times today that Taylor Hall is among the top 2 LW in hockey. Now that he’s injured, Oiler fans will be claiming his injury prevented him from winning the scoring title and getting voted to the All Star team.

So, before Hall misses a game played, let’s get this on the record for future reference:

LW P/60 5V5:(minimum 5 GP)

Jamie Benn – 4.66

Tanner Pearson – 4.01

Chris Higgins – 3.47

Joe Colborne – 3.43

Jason Pominville – 3.42

Jason Zucker – 3.41

Zack Parise – 3.34

Thomas Vanek – 3.33

Anthony Duclair – 3.28

Justin Fontaine – 3.21

Brandon Saad – 3.10

—————-

Taylor Hall – 2.59

There are currently 24 LW’s who are scoring at a higher rate at evens than Hall was when he suffered his injury.

If you think Hall’s performance on the PP will bail him out here, you couldn’t be more wrong.

When he went down with injury, Hall was ranked 61st among LW’s on the powerplay with exactly 1 point on the PP. ONE.

While I don’t doubt the hapless Oilers will miss Hall’s contributions, let’s at least be honest about what they’re missing.

* Need to watch NHL hockey without regional blackouts?

Check this out.

http://support.unblock-us.com/customer/portal/articles/1719688-enter-the-unblock-us-powerplay-and-you-might-win-freeness-

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

800 Pound Gorillas

So, as some teams complete the first 10% of their seasons, it’s worth looking at which teams are really playing well and which might be benefiting from either a surplus of power play opportunities or an unsustainable power play percentage.

Pittsburgh, for example is cashing in on 36.4% of their power play opportunities this season and, although they led the league a year ago at 23.4%, you can expect some regression there.

That’s not a huge deal for Penguin fans since their team is also very good at even strength posting a 5V5 F/A of 1.09.

Don’t think 5V5 matters much? Well, here are the top teams from last season:

1) Boston 1.53

2) Anaheim 1.39

3) Los Angeles 1.28

4) Chicago 1.27

5) St. Louis 1.22

6) San Jose 1.17

7) Tampa Bay 1.16

8) Minnesota 1.15

9) Colorado 1.12

10) New York Rangers 1.07

11) Columbus 1.06

12) Pittsburgh 1.05

13) Dallas 1.04

14) Detroit 1.03

15) Phoenix 1.00

16) Montreal 0.99

Please note that 15 of those 16 made the playoffs last season and only Phoenix didn’t although they missed by a hair.

The lesson here is that you’d better be good at even strength, the state in which most of the game is played, or you’re doomed.

So, in an early season snapshot, let’s take a look at the contenders and pretenders so far this season with the caveat of small sample sizes.

The Gorillas

1) Minnesota leads the way with a 5V5 FA ratio of 4.00. The Wild have only played 5 games and have yet to score a PP goal this season but they have been so good 5V5 that they’ve managed a .600 win percentage.

2) Nashville 2.00

3) Calgary 1.80

4) Chicago 1.67

5) Anaheim 1.60

6) Los Angeles 1.57

7) Tampa Bay 1.50

8) Washington 1.44

9) New Jersey 1.36

10) Ottawa 1.33

11) Dallas 1.23

12) New York Islanders 1.21

There are several other teams with a positive 5V5 percentage so one good or bad game could change their status but there are also several teams that are a mess at even strength and you can likely count them out of the playoff race soon if not now.

The Chimps

30) Buffalo 0.35 (OMG)

29) Carolina 0.43

28) Arizona 0.53

27) Edmonton 0.64

26) Winnipeg 0.65

Save a massive turnaround in even strength play, those are your leading contenders for Connor McDavid in the 2015 draft.

Cabinet of Curiosities

 

So, here we are 1 week into the NHL season (give or take) and some early observations are in order.

1) Edmonton Oiler fans are already near a revolt. The team, as expected, has done a face plant right out of the blocks. Remember I called them to finish 13th in the WC although, based on early returns, that may have been optimistic. There was optimism among the rabble that the Oilers had solidified their D and sorted out their goaltending in the offseason  but both have been nothing short of dreadful and Viktor Fasth is already on IR.

Remember I mentioned the Oilers were a Nugent-Hopkins injury away from a disaster? Well, guess what? As expected, opposition players have been targeting Hopkins, Hall and Eberle with huge, clean hits and already the Oiler kids are back and blue.

As of this writing, I imagine Daniel Winnik is just licking his chops.

There are some observers, particularity at Lowetide’s blog, that the Oilers are “better” this season and point to small sample size Corsi ratios to back up their argument but as long time poster Woodguy has pointed out repeatedly, the Oilers “improvement” has been based on score effects rather than reality.

So far this season, the Oilers are giving up 31.7 shots per game while last year they gave up 32.9

When your goaltending and D are sub par and the opposition is getting unimpeded shots from the prime scoring areas, giving up 5+ goals per game is not surprising.

In the game against the Kings, the Oilers were outshot 13-7 in the 1st period and the Kings went on cruise control after taking a 3-0 lead. They then spent the last 2 periods capitalizing on Oiler defensive mistakes and, in the 3rd period, were obviously playing to get Jonathan Quick a shutout.

The Oilers are getting more shots this season but, as Woodguy has pointed out, the reality is they are getting those shots while playing from behind. That has no sustain.

2) The Colorado Avalanche have started very slowly with a 1-2-0 record after losing their first two games by shutout to the Minnesota Wild. Like the Oilers, the Av’s are giving up way too many shots and, at least against the very impressive Wild, also had trouble generating offence. From the viewing I’ve had, it appears that the Av’s offseason additions, Jarome Iginla and Daniel Briere along with Alex Tanguay are having trouble keeping up with the speed of MacKinnon, Duchene and O’Reilly. It’ll be interesting to see how Colorado responds to the issue.

3) 2 teams, the Minnesota Wild and the Vancouver Canucks, won’t play their 3rd game of the season until Friday night while some other teams will already have played 4 or 5.

That may give both teams a bit of an early season boost since they’ve had time to practice, rest and heal any nagging injuries but, later, they’ll be playing a compressed schedule that may take a toll.

Given their lack of playing time, it’s hard to get an early read on either team but the Wild have been dominant and the Canucks seem to be having fun again. If the Canucks can get their PP back to near the top of the league as they were just a couple of season ago, watch out. So far, they’re at 30% and it appears Radim Vrbata, a RH shot, may be just what the doctor ordered. Sweet Georgia Brown may be back in the house.

4) The Dallas Stars wobbled out of the gate but their victory over a very good Columbus team was just dominant. Jamie Benn showed again why he is the best LW in hockey notching a Gordie Howe hat trick with 1G and 3A. Oh, and Tyler Seguin scored 3 goals with 6 shots and was +4. Take that Taylor!

5) Every season there is a Cinderella team that rises from the ashes to compete with the Big Boys. This season, I think it’ll be the New York Islanders. Garth Snow (I KNOW!) killed it in the offseason adding Grabovski, Kulemin, Boychuk and Leddy and already his moves are paying dividends. Snow has managed to acquire so much centre depth that the Isles are actually playing 3 bonafide NHL centres on one line and, folks, we know the key to winning in the NHL is depth down the middle.

6) The Florida Panthers played a game against the Ottawa Senators earlier this week. Or did they? The announced attendance was 7,211 and I can tell you that I watched the game and if there were actually 3,000 in attendance, I would be shocked. Apparently, Broward County is considering whether or not they would be better off without the Panthers and, unless they are ingesting some of those illegal substances that are so prevalent in Florida, they will just tell the team to GTFO. Quebec City is beckoning.

 

 

 

 

Now or Never

American Thanksgiving falls on the 4th Thursday of November.

This year that Thursday falls on November 27th.

It also coincides roughly with the end of the first quarter of the NHL season and for almost every team in the league, the first 20 games determine who will taste playoff success and who won’t.

“The magic playoff number seemed to be 21 points. Those with at least 21 points were more likely to make the playoffs. Those with 20 or fewer points were more likely to miss.

The extra point — introduced for overtime losses in the 1999-2000 season — changed very little statistically. In the five seasons before the extra point was introduced, 63 of 80 playoff teams (78.8 per cent) were in a playoff spot. In the five years afterwards, 61 of 80 (76.3 per cent) were in the same spot.

New rules introduced after the lockout – including the introduction of the shootout — also changed little. In the five years since the lockout, 62 of 80 of playoff teams (77.5 per cent) were in a playoff spot by the fourth Thursday of November.”

Source

In the Western Conference, I think we can group the teams into age categories that should help simplify the actual chances of teams making the playoffs or not.

The Locks:

It would take several acts of God for these teams to miss the playoffs:

Los Angeles

Chicago

Anaheim

St. Louis

4 of the playoff spots in the WC are already gone folks so we’re looking at 12 teams vying for 4 spots. Who is in the next tier?

The Contenders:

I’m going to go out on a bit of limb here (not really) and predict that 5 teams from the Central Division will make the playoffs this season and I’ll tell you why.

We’ve already accounted for Chicago and St. Louis so we have the following in the order I think they will finish:

Dallas – The Stars are the most improved team in the league with the addition of Spezza and Hemsky. They’re deep down the middle have a passable D and decent goaltending.

Minnesota – The Wild added Thomas Vanek to address scoring, Mikael Granlund is an emerging star and Matt Dumba had an outstanding training camp. Charlie Coyle, Erik Haula and Jason Zucker add developing depth and scoring.

Colorado  – The Avalanche rode percentages last year and are likely to falter somewhat but a top 6 that includes Nathan MacKinnon, Matt Duchene, Ryan O’Reilly, Gabriel Landeskog, Jarome Iginla and Alex Tanguay should be able to outscore almost any other problems.

That’s 7 playoff spots already accounted for kids…there’s only ONE left!

The Hopefuls:

To my mind, the only real playoff race (despite what the Bettman point tells you) is between only 2 teams.

San Jose – The Sharks had a tumultuous offseason in which they stripped the captaincy from Joe Thornton, inexplicably added John Scott and then….nothing. The Sharks remain, however, a deep, extremely talented team who could challenge the top group or fade away.

Vancouver – The Canucks have a new President, GM, coach, assistant coaches and second line centre. The also added some secondary scoring but, let’s be honest, to make the playoffs, the Sedins will have to rebound in a big way and Willie Desjardins will have to get their power play back to among the league’s best if the Canucks are going to make it.

Based solely on skill, I have to give the nod to the Sharks here but the Canucks and Sharks play each other 5 times this season and the team that prevails in that series likely makes the dance while the other goes home. Those 5 games should be treated like game 7’s in the Stanley Cup finals since each game will likely have a deciding impact on the standings.

The Rabble:

Occasionally, a team will rise up from the depths and surprise everyone with their performance as Colorado did last season. Are any of the other teams in the WC capable of that feat?

Nashville – To my eye…this is the most unpredictable team in the WC.  They’ve added much needed scoring in James Neal, Mike Ribiero  and a raft of second tier centres. Their D and goaltending are solid but their forward depth is a question mark. Likely close but no cigar.

Phoenix – Weren’t good enough last year and got worse in the offseason.

Winnipeg – The Jets should be better but likely not enough to close the gap on 8th place.

Calgary –  The Flames are better than you think but a long, long way from a playoff contender. They should be fun to watch though.

Edmonton – If the Oilers won 10 more games this season than last, they would still miss the playoffs by 5 or 6 points. They won’t win 10 more games.

So, to me the races will really be between San Jose and Vancouver for the final playoff spot and who will finish last in the division.

I think the Coyotes will finally implode this offseason while Edmonton, Calgary, Winnipeg and Nashville jostle for the Best of the Worst.

We’ll have a pretty good idea by the 27th of November.