Turning South

Pacific-Triangle-1

It was widely expected that the Edmonton Oilers would and should make a turn north this season after 9 years as the worst team in the NHL.

The “expert panel” assembled by the fine folks at Oilers Nation were all optimistic, even delusional in some cases.

  • Lowetide 93
  • Jeanshorts 90
  • Henderson 90
  • Gregor 86
  • Willis 85
  • Baggedmilk 82
  • Brownlee 82

You may recall that I had predicted before the season began that the Oilers would finish 13th in the conference ahead only of the Arizona Coyotes which, as things are shaking out, may prove me to be slightly optimistic as well.

Old friend Darcy McLeod of Woodblog took the time over at Lowetide this morning to assess how the Oilers are actually performing:

Some comparisons of key stats from this year and last Nov 11.

First number will be this year, 2nd number is last year at this time. (running WOI Oct1/14-Nov11/14)

5v5 GF/60
2.00/60 (tied 17th in NHL)
2.10/60 (tied 18th in NHL)

5v5 GA/60
2.90 (28th in NHL)
3.10 (29th in NHL)

5v5 SH%
7.4% (tied 16th)
7.3% (tied 21st)

5v5 SV%
.904 (27th in NHL)
.900 (29th in NHL)

5v5 SH/60
26.8 (27th in NHL)
29.2 (tied 16th in NHL)

5v5 SF/60
29.9 (22nd in NHL)
30.6 (tied 22nd in NHL)

5v5 CF%
48.4 (24th in NHL)
50.6 (15th in NHL)

5v5 SCF/60
24.6 (tied 21st in NHL)
25.1 (tied 22nd in NHL)

5v5 SCA/60
24.8 (11th in NHL)
26.2 (16th in NHL)

5v5 HDSCF/60
9.3 (26th in NHL)
10.9 (16th in NHL)

5v5 HDSCA/60
11.2 (tied 23rd in NHL)
12.0 (22nd in NHL)

Sooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo

Oilers slightly better defensively than last year via SA, SCA and HDSA

Oilers slight worse offensively (despite McEverything playing 12 games) via SF, SCF and HDSCF.

No surprise to me as you may know…the Oilers still don’t even have ONE passable top pairing D and don’t even get me started on the over payments for Sekera and Reinhart.

I had also warned about once again going into another season without having a bonafide #1 goaltender a move which, if you consider the buyers market in goaltending, is inexcusable.

The Oilers next 3 games are against Pacific Division opponents…Anaheim tonight followed by Arizona (second games in 2 on the road) and then a third game in four nights against the Kings in LA.

The Oilers would need to get at least 3 points out of those games to even remain in the Pacific Division conversation but it’s much more likely they come away with 1or 0.

That they get to follow up that 3 game death march with a match at home against the Blackhawks likely means the Oilers season will be effectively over a week from today.

Perhaps that will spur Peter Chiarelli to start making some moves to shore up the dreadful D and I would suggest the first place he should look is in Dallas where the Stars are carrying 8 defensemen because they don’t want to expose any of their young “NHL ready” youngsters to waivers:

  1. Alex Goligoski
  2. John Klingberg (untouchable)
  3. Johnny Oduya
  4. Jordie Benn
  5. Jason Demers
  6. Jyrki Jokipakka
  7. Jamie Oleksiak
  8. Patrick Nemeth
  9. Julius Honka*
  10. Stephen Johns*
  11. Esa Lindell*
  12. Ludwig Bystrom*        *in the AHL

Jim Nill might well be reluctant to part with any of those players unless the return was very significant but Goligoski is UFA at the end of the season and if he feels one of his other young players is ready to pair with phenom Klingberg, perhaps Chiarelli could get his attention.

Goligoski, while not an elite pairing D, would certainly be the Oilers #1D right out of the box and would allow the other Oilers D to slot lower in the batting order which is exactly what is needed.

Of course, the Stars have very little need to do anything at this point but Nill has proven to be a GM not afraid to make big moves if he can improve his team in the future.

On the other hand, Chiarelli, a week from now, may realize that with the season already over from a competitive point of view he’ll just sit on his hands for the final few months of the 10th annual death march and try to offload some junk at the deadline.

Going to be a fascinating week ahead.

Advertisements

6 thoughts on “Turning South

  1. LT posters rely too heavily on advanced stats, and in doing so they are wrong about most things Oilers. They are very articulate but no hockey sense.

    Like

  2. To each his own I suppose.

    Thing is, the advanced stats are pretty poor too.

    That’s what happens when you have 8 or 9 bottom 4 D and sub par goaltending to back it up.

    Chiarelli could have done much more in the offseason but made at least 4 bad bets in Sekera (who would be fine as a #3 or #4), Reinhart, Talbot/Nilsson and Korpikoski,

    Without winning the lottery and without Daniel Sedin somehow missing an empty net tap in, the Oilers would likely have only 5-6 points this season.

    That’s a disaster.

    Like

  3. Agree with most of your post, good read by the way.

    Hated the Reinhart deal the second it happened and wondered if the old regime had somehow convinced Chiarelli that Reinhart was the second coming……….That was dear price to pay for a kid that got past by lower pedigree on long island.

    I will say this, getting to watch the Oilers regularly I see the improvements mostly without the puck, but I still think Talbot is a keeper.

    When a player like Gryba is getting 17- 18 min a night that’s a defense problem, when Nurse is the teams second best defensmen thats a problem.

    I’m not sold it’s a goalie problem.

    IMO The Oilers can’t go after anyone not established even though I like Oleksiak, I think Goligoski is to much like an Oiler.

    To make matters worse the Oilers not only need two top pairing D-man they have to come with some grit, skill and some nastiness and be Right handed…….Brutal.

    So, What to do?

    Trade a roster player or trade the lottery pick or combination?

    Final Thought – The Oilers should look at Mike Richards and dump Lander.

    Like

    1. I can’t blame you for feeling that way…the Stars are loaded with young D but they won’t be able to develop them all since there won’t be room on the NHL roster. It would take an overpay from the Oilers to get one and I’m not sure the Oilers have ANYTHING the Stars need but Nill has the luxury of dictating terms.

      Like

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s