Really?

disney-myths

Here’s a provocative quote from over at Lowetide this morning:

sliderule:
So we have two games in a row were the forwards with worst Corsi scored the goals.

Hall to my eyes played a great game against a very good team.

Corsi says otherwise.

Taylor Hall scored a goal in last night’s game against the Dallas Stars and sliderules’ comment about Halls’ Corsi is, of course, much more accurate than his lionization of a player who was absolutely overwhelmed against a team with actual elite players.

At evens last night, Hall was 10-21 in Corsi events but, as I promised in an earlier comment, I finally had the chance to sit down and track every “touch” Hall had in the game and the results are far from pretty.

Now understand, that my tracking will be somewhat subjective but I attempted to be as fair as possible.

First Period:

  1. missed pass
  2. giveaway in the NZ
  3. tip at blue line – turnover
  4. turnover in the D zone
  5. PP turnover (recovered)
  6. PP poor pass – zone lost
  7. good O zone entry – turnover
  8. one touch GOAL
  9. zone entry – turnover
  10. zone entry – fell down -turnover

Second Period

  1. nice outlet pass
  2. pass batted down -turnover
  3. PP good pass
  4. PP pushed off puck – cleared
  5. PP shot blocked
  6. pushed off puck – turnover
  7. knocked down in the ozone – turnover

Third Period

  1. Nice pass in the O zone
  2. Missed receiving pass – turnover
  3. turnover in the D zone
  4. shoot in – turnover

Overtime

  1. Nice pass to Draisaitl

Hall got credit for 3 SOG last night but I think that was very generous and it’s worth noting that Tyler Seguin was credited with 7.

If we assign a +- value to the events listed above, I think we can see how dominant the Stars were and how ineffective Hall really was when playing against elite players.

There is this persistent myth that Hall is the best LW in hockey which to anyone who sees Jamie Benn play on a regular basses is just horsefeathers.

Consider this:

LW -PPG

  1. Jamie Benn – 1.29
  2. Mike Hoffman – 1.19
  3. Artemi Panarin – 1.12
  4. Mike Camilleri – 1.08
  5. Daniel Sedin – 1.07
  6. Johnny Gaudreau – 1.00
  7. Alex Ovechkin – 1.00
  8. Taylor Hall – .963
  9. Max Pacioretty – .926
  10. Max Domi -.885

In response to a reader’s question, I had suggested that Hall’s production would soon suffer as Leon Draisaitl’s 33% shooting percentage crashed to earth and, of course, that’s exactly what has happened.

Even with last night’s goal, Hall has only 2 points in his last 7 games which coincides exactly with Draisaitl’s plummet to 21.1%.

So, while Hall is clearly a top 10 LW in the league, he is nowhere near the best and I expect him to fall further off the pace as the regression of Draisaitl wends its merry way to average.

I’ll track another game in a couple of weeks.

 

 

 

 

 

 

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17 thoughts on “Really?

  1. I’m not sure if the data can hold water for to long.

    I completely agree on Draisaitl’s SH %

    Having said that, I expect him to continue playing well and putting up points.

    I’m not judging here but, have you taken into consideration that McDavid will soon return and the Oilers are close to being healthy.

    I’m asking because I’m sure once McDavid comes back the Oilers have a tone of options.

    its no coincidence that Hall got as high as top 5 in scoring also coincided with Draisaitl’s rise because they seen less of the tough comp while McDavid was playing.

    Putting Draisaitl back on RW and putting RNH in the middle gives Hall another weapon.

    McDavids return is coming very soon, possible soon after Christmas break which puts him at the point of his expected time table for return.

    I think will see Hall in the top 8 in scoring by year’s end baring injury.

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    1. Wishful thinking on your part I expect.

      Hall had 4G and 4A in his first 10 games with McDavid in the lineup and he scored 3 of those points in 1 game against Calgary.

      While a .8 PPG pace is nothing to sneeze at, it certainly won’t land you in the top 8 in scoring.

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      1. True, however Taylor Hall never played with Draisaitl in the first 11 games and McDavid was taken off his line to help get Yakupov and Pouliot going.

        Thats why I mentioned the line of Hall – RNH – Draisaitl could push Hall over 1PPG a game.

        McDavid coming back changes everything, a healthy Eberle couldn’t hurt ether.

        I think the way he’s been going all year I wouldn’t bet against him right now.

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        1. Perhaps…but Hopkins has been pretty bad offensively. (4P in his last 10GP)

          And McDavid was taken off Hall’s line because it wasn’t working.

          I think you’ll find that Draisaitl will eventually be a weak link in all this.

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          1. I got to be honest I’m not at all sold on Draisaitl yet and I think might be a better option at RW then C, so I got no disagreement with that.
            Time will tell.

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        1. Yes he’s had a good week but so have others.

          Both Benn and Seguin have extended their leads and, of course, several players like Gaudreau, Panarin, Kuznetsov and Tarasenko have multiple games in hand.

          Draisaitl still is shooting 22% and you know that isn’t going to last.

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          1. Hall hasn’t slowed down yet–6 points in 2 games this week and named the NHL’s 2nd star. I know you’ll mention road scoring, but why not also mention even strength scoring? Hall is second in even strength scoring per 60 minutes–behind Leon Draisaitl (whom someone once compared to Joe Colborne).

            http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/ratings.php?db=201516&sit=5v5&type=individual&teamid=0&pos=skaters&minutes=50&disp=1&sort=PCT&sortdir=DESC

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          2. Well Hall went pointless against Boston. Oilers should toss him on waivers.

            In other news, Benn was held pointless in his last game. Perhaps they can trade him for Joe Colborne.

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  2. You realize how comical this post is right? This is a classic example of creating evidence to support your preferred narrative. You do not like Taylor Hall. Therefore when you watch him play it is easy for you to spot all the things to do not like in his game to support your dislike. Benn and Seguin are great players. So is Hall. These things are not mutually exclusive. Also very few people claim Hall is the best LW in hockey. Is he one of the best wingers in hockey? Absolutely. Is Benn? Absolutely. There is zero evidence to suggest that Hall is not one of the elite wingers in the game. It is funny, I have a lot of time for your hockey insights but your anti-Hall schtick is tiresome.

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  3. Hall and Draisaitl are about to embark on a road trip which will determine whether or not they can succeed against the others teams’ best.

    Thus far they have been pedestrian on the road so let’s see in a week how those numbers look.

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