Re Drafts

2012_NHL_Draft

A couple of comments on Lowetide last night regarding the painful progress of Nail Yakupov got me thinking about what a little hindsight would do to the draft rankings in 2012.

I was always in favour of taking Alex Galchenyuk first in the draft…mainly because he was a centre but also because his draft year injury left him undervalued. Obviously time has proved those to be correct assumptions but it also gives us a chance to re-assess that draft in the cold light on a March day in 2015…and the results are not kind to Yakupov at all.

I mentioned last night that I didn’t think Yakupov would go in the top 10 in a re-draft and after examining the evidence more closely this morning, I think that’s a reasonably safe assumption.

Galchenyuk, while being brought along slowly in his first couple of seasons, is on pace for a 25 goal 50 point season while Yakupov has only 11 goals and 25 points despite getting extreme Ozone starts and playing very soft competition. It’s also worth noting that, despite and that tender loving care from Oilers coaches, Yakupov also has the worst plus/minus in the league at -35.

Now, I’m not one to put too much stock in the plus/minus stat but when your are among the worst in the league for consecutive seasons, it does say something about your game.

But the misery for Yakupov and his supporters don’t end there.

These are the the PPG stats for some of the top players in that draft in my opinion. Let’s keep in mind it was a very D heavy draft but, even so, some of these results show you how poorly Yakupov has performed. (D in bold)

Forsberg – .678

Galchenyuk – .547

Hertl – .509

Yakupov – .446

Trouba – .419

Lindholm – .414

Girgensons – .397

Maata – .387

Rielly – .368

Some things become pretty obvious…Yakupov, despite his extreme sheltering is barely out producing defensemen taken lower in the draft and despite it still being early days on this draft class, I think an update at this juncture would seem to indicate the Oilers would like a mulligan.

It also should be noted that other teams have a different (read:more patient) development schedule for their rookies so a few others may soon leave Yakupov in the dust too.

I’m thinking of players like Teuvo Teravainen, Tanner Pearson, Derrick Pouliot, Jacob Trouba and Matt Dumba who is having a fantastic season in Minnesota.

Another provision is that Ryan Murray has been hampered by injuries so we don’t have a real read on him yet.

My Redraft:

1) Alex Galchenyuk

2) Filip Forsberg

3) Morgan Rielly

4) Jacob Trouba

5) Tomas Hertl

6) Ollie Maata

7) Hampus Lindhom

8) Zemgus Girgensons

9) Matt Dumba

10) Nail Yakupov

I expect Tanner Pearson would also be in the top 10 if not injured as he had 12 goals in 42 games and that Cody Ceci also merits consideration but he’s being brought along slowly in Ottawa so we may not know his top end for a while.

 

 

 

Advertisements

7 thoughts on “Re Drafts

  1. Hindsight is twenty-twenty, but Galchenyuk would have also have been my choice. Presumably, the medical information would have been available that would have shown his injury would probably have no long term implications. (This reminds me of another Hab who fell in the draft because of a major injury in his draft year. Larry Robinson is now in the Hall of Fame.) Yakupov was the consensus number one, with Murray number two. Rumours will not go away that Yakupov was the owner’s directive, it would be interesting to see what the scouts’ choice would have been.
    A bigger concern is that he was not moved after his rookie year, when he rode a completely unsustainable shooting percentage and late season hot streak to lead rookies in scoring. It was obvious that he had major holes in his game, but the showmanship and scoring that he demonstrated would have been almost guaranteed to get a good young centre or defenceman from a team looking to sell the product in a soft market. Tambellini now insists that he was blocked from doing deals that could have helped the team, could something like this be one of them? Sell high doesn’t just work in the stock market.

    Like

  2. Sorry for the inactivity, been skiing.

    I clearly remember the Yakupov draft, and I can back up that you infact were often the only person who thought Galchenyuk was the way to go as did I.

    To me it was the perfect draft to ether take another centre in Galchenyuk or move the pick, I really wanted to see a package of players coming back by trading but was not against keeping Galchenyuk.

    I actually hate the term BPA as Alan Mitchell uses it – to me it’s part of the reason the Oilers are where they are.

    Instead of Seguin it’s Hall….why? BPA at the time of the draft……Nonsense.

    Everything being that close in a draft,you always take the centre. Not because a player played on a stacked team where Hall’s MVP status comes into play.

    This is where the Oilers scouting has a massive fail, they seen Galchenyuk at the start of the season going into the draft albeit not a great sample size but they should have known had Galchenyuk not got injuried he would have challenged Yakupov for number 1.

    Galchenyuk wasn’t even on the Oilers radar.

    Does anyone recall Galchenyuk getting a tour of the Katz mansion? I don’t?

    No to mention, this BPA action fly’s out the window as soon as the Oiler get past round 1.

    It’s an incredible bad organizational fail.

    Musil instead of Boonre Fucking Jenner………..go figure.

    Like

    1. Good to see you back….was wondering where you were.

      And you’re exactly right…BPA is just a matter of opinion…and, if it’s close…take the C.

      Teams who draft well find value…not consensus.

      Detroit has just promoted 4th round pick Teemu Pulkinnen….and he’s killing it just like their picks always do.

      Like

      1. I feel that the BPA concept is a place where poor drafting teams get into trouble. I don’t see BPA to mean “most flashy”. I think that it should mean “the player who has the potential to be the most impactful for a NHL team.” Centres and defencemen then become, by definition, better picks than wingers with similar skills. Using that view, Tyler would have beaten Taylor hands down. (It is interesting that the Oiler propaganda show “Oil Change” showed the Taylor Hall pre-draft interview so they could hype the passion, but did not show the Seguin interview and let people compare.) If you need to make changes later, it is a lot easier to make a favorable trade when you have a good centre or defenceman to offer.
        I am concerned that the Oilers will again try to be the smartest men in the room and leave Hanifin and Strome on the board to take Marner (who they are reportedly excited about) or Crouse. They will end up with yet another smurf or another plumber.

        Like

        1. Agree completely.

          I expect (and the odds back it up) that some team outside the “top 3” wins the lottery and will take McDavid, Buffalo takes Eichel and Arizona takes Hanifin.

          That will leave the Oilers with a very tough decision and I expect they will take Marner.

          Like

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s