Conventional wisdom is frequently wrong but I tend to agree that it takes 5 years to assess the players taken in a draft and we are coming up to the 5 year mark for the players selected in the 2010.
Now, we still have 2/3 of a season to play so things could change bit but I thought an update would be an interesting exercise.
Goaltenders and defensemen will be excluded since both can take much longer to develop so we’re left with 21 forwards.
5 years is a good marker since it tends to allow for differences in how the picks were handled and developed and brings into pretty clear focus how the players are performing NOW.
For example, Vladimir Tarasenko and/or the Blues opted for the Russian sniper to play 3 more seasons the KHL before coming to North America. And, of course, NCAA players like Charlie Coyle tend to arrive later if they decide to stay in college after the draft.
So, let’s take a look at the P/60 5V5 this season of the forwards taken in the 1st round of the 2010 draft:
Vladimir Tarasenko – 3.54
Tyler Seguin – 3.34
Jaden Schwartz – 2.67
Nick Bjugstad – 2.62
Jeff Skinner – 2.41
Brock Nelson – 2.35
Ryan Johansen – 2.24
Beau Bennett – 2.15 (only 7 GP due to injury)
Kevin Hayes – 2.15 (drafted by Chicago but signed with the Rangers)
Taylor Hall – 2.13
Nino Neiderreiter – 1.90
Riley Sheehan – 1.89
Charlie Coyle – 1.77
Emerson Etem – 1.18
Mikael Granlund – 1.14
Brett Connolly – 1.11
Evgeny Kuznetsov – 1.02
Alexander Burmistrov – (playing in the KHL)
Joey Hishon (side lined by a series of concussions and may never play in the NHL)
Quinton Howden (also a concussion victim)
So, what does it all mean?
1) St. Louis just killed the 2010 draft. They drafted Schwartz at 14 and took a flyer on the Russian at 16. Getting 2 of the top 3 even strength scorers in one draft is larceny.
2) Tarasenko and Seguin are easily the class of this draft class.
3) Taylor Hall is having a really bad 5th season or he ain’t all that.
4) I would keep an eye on both Nino and Coyle playing for the Wild. Both have been showing much improvement this season.
5) Nick Bjugstad is coming on hard with the offensively challenged Panthers. I’d wager both he and Brock Nelson of the Islanders are going to make this interesting.